内容来源：https://www.wired.com/story/uncanny-valley-podcast-iran-targets-us-tech-polymarket-pop-up-trump-midterms/

内容总结：

本期播客节目聚焦三大热点：伊朗局势升级对美国科技巨头的威胁、特朗普政府被指试图干预中期选举，以及预测市场平台Polymarket在华盛顿一场混乱的线下营销活动。

首先，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队近日发出明确威胁，宣称若其领导人在持续冲突中遇害，将于4月1日起对包括苹果、微软、谷歌、Meta、IBM、特斯拉、Palantir等在内的18家美国科技公司在中东的资产发动攻击。尽管相关公司大多拒绝置评，但此威胁已引发对员工安全、地区投资及关键基础设施风险的严重关切。此前，亚马逊云服务数据中心已遭两次袭击，表明威胁并非空谈。分析指出，这与美国科技及AI企业近期加大在中东业务布局的态势相叠加，使得局势更为复杂。

其次，节目深入剖析了特朗普政府被指为影响即将到来的中期选举所采取的一系列行动。核心举措包括推动所谓“拯救美国法案”，该法案要求选民提供护照或出生证明等证件，可能剥夺数百万合格选民的投票权。同时，政府持续抨击邮寄选票，并在各级政府中安插宣扬“选举舞弊”论的人员，甚至考虑在选举日派遣移民海关执法局特工前往投票站。尽管部分措施在国会或法院面临阻力，但分析认为，这反映出一种“全面策略”，旨在为可能的选举失利预设“选举被操纵”的叙事。

最后，节目以场景报道的形式，描述了预测市场平台Polymarket在华盛顿特区举办的“情报室”主题快闪酒吧活动如何演变成一场混乱的公关事件。活动宣传称将提供实时金融数据终端和沉浸式投注体验，但现场却出现设备故障、长时间延误、食物简陋等问题，被与会者形容为“有点像Fyre音乐节惨案”。此举被视为Polymarket在监管机构附近进行的一次高调但执行失败的营销，意图提升其在政治和金融圈的影响力。值得注意的是，该行业与特朗普家族关系密切，且正寻求更深地融入传统金融体系。

总体而言，本期内容揭示了地缘政治紧张如何直接波及美国科技产业，国内政治选举面临的新争议，以及新兴金融科技公司在扩张过程中引发的关注与混乱。

中文翻译：

本周，团队回归节目，探讨美国顶尖科技公司如何在持续的美伊冲突中日益成为攻击目标。我们还将深入解析Polymarket在华盛顿特区快闪酒吧的混乱现场。此外，主持人将梳理特朗普政府为操控中期选举所采取的一系列行动。

本期节目提及的文章：

• 《伊朗威胁将于4月1日起攻击美国主要科技企业》
• 《Polymarket在华盛顿的亮相派对沦为灾难》
• 《特朗普已开始威胁中期选举的三种手段》

您可以在Bluesky上关注布莱恩·巴雷特（@brbarrett）、佐伊·希弗（@zoeschiffer）和莉亚·费格（@leahfeiger）。欢迎来信至[email protected]。

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文字转录
注：以下为自动生成的字幕稿，可能存在误差。

布莱恩·巴雷特：大家好，我是布莱恩。过去几周，佐伊、莉亚和我非常荣幸担任节目新任主持人，我们期待听到您的反馈。若您喜欢本期节目，请在您常用的播客平台为我们留下评分。您的支持能帮助我们触达更多听众。如有问题或建议，欢迎随时联系[email protected]。感谢收听，节目现在开始。

佐伊·希弗：莉亚，你到芝加哥了吗？

莉亚·费格：说实话差点没赶上。过去三天我在机场耗的时间简直不愿回想。

布莱恩·巴雷特：你昨天还说很高兴能从纽瓦克机场起飞——这话我可头回听说。

莉亚·费格：说这话时我还太年轻。

佐伊·希弗：欢迎收听《连线》杂志“诡异谷”栏目。我是商业与产业板块总监佐伊·希弗。

布莱恩·巴雷特：我是执行主编布莱恩·巴雷特。

莉亚·费格：我是政治新闻高级编辑莉亚·费格。

佐伊·希弗：本周节目内容涵盖面很广：既有伊朗威胁攻击美国科技企业的国际政治动态，也有追踪特朗普试图操控中期选举的选情分析，还有本刊驻华盛顿同事对Polymarket快闪酒吧的现场报道——那场面简直堪比“火人节”混乱现场。

布莱恩·巴雷特：给听众们透露点幕后花絮：我们每周三录制节目，周四上线发布。这就是我们的魔法时刻。虽然录制后可能发生新动态，但就在本周三——也就是昨天周二——伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告称，若持续冲突中有更多伊朗领导人遇害，他们将开始攻击中东地区十余家美国企业。他们此前也发出过类似威胁，但这次特别设定了期限：宣布自4月1日起锁定该区域企业目标。清单共列有18家公司，包括苹果、微软、谷歌、Meta、IBM、特斯拉、Palantir等知名企业。截至目前袭击尚未发生（除了一起可能波及亚马逊云服务的攻击稍后讨论），但这无疑是局势升级的信号。我很好奇这些企业将如何应对：他们有何义务保护员工安全？这对该地区日益重要的各类投资意味着什么？无论袭击是否成真——但愿不会——这都引出了诸多严峻问题。

莉亚·费格：令我震惊的是，声明中呼吁该地区科技企业员工远离工作场所，建议公司办公室附近居民转移到安全区域。这是非常严肃的警告。这提醒我们：当前这场已升级为全面规模的战争，与特朗普童年时代的战争截然不同。我们身处全球化时代，若美国企业真的遇袭，他绝无可能置身事外。这不同于军事打击，其影响将难以规避——除了事件本身的残酷与悲哀，这更关乎无数普通人的生命。

佐伊·希弗：我们联系了清单上的所有企业，发现他们大多不愿对此置评或说明应对措施。说实话我挺意外：你们都被列入攻击目标了，却什么都不想说？

莉亚·费格：他们既不愿透露应急预案，也不确认是否撤离了员工，甚至不想表态是否重视此事——因为若公开重视，就等于暗示不信任美国政府及军方的应对能力。这是两难局面：一边是特朗普发文宣称美国必胜，否则将降下“火雨”；另一边是企业管理层至少得假装相信这种说法，却让成千上万员工承担风险。

布莱恩·巴雷特：美方在最新声明后回应称“若伊朗采取行动必将回击”，这就像“等车祸发生了再装停车标志”。伊朗确实有实施能力：上月他们已两次袭击亚马逊云服务数据中心并破坏另一处设施，这是首次公开确认针对美资超大规模云基础设施的攻击。我的疑问是：袭击目标究竟是象征性的总部（即便已空置），还是真正支撑云计算的关键基础设施？希望这只是虚张声势，事态能尽快平息。

佐伊·希弗：但此事恰逢萨姆·奥尔特曼随特朗普政府成员访问中东，他在当地达成协议并可能筹建大型数据中心。奥尔特曼等AI领袖一直视该区域为拓展业务的黄金市场。正如达里奥·阿莫迪所言：“我们对在中东建设数据中心持谨慎态度。”有趣的是，当我向Anthropic和OpenAI人士询问对伊朗战争的看法时，旧金山总部的普通员工反应多是：“什么战争？”他们更关注国内动态，对国际局势似乎不太上心——高层或许例外，但基层员工确实态度漠然。

布莱恩·费格：我对此有些惊讶，因为冲突连锁反应已导致股市大幅下跌，科技板块某些跌幅达20%。英伟达、Meta等公司股价下挫明显。许多寻求IPO退出的企业将面临更严峻环境，持有公司期权者的资产价值也在缩水。虽然要等钱包受损才能唤起关注很可悲，但这一天或许终会到来。

佐伊·希弗：若财务影响持续，这些人肯定会重视起来。虽然上市公司经历剧烈震荡，但员工似乎已习惯市场起伏。以OpenAI为例，他们原计划年底前IPO，但据我接触的部分员工表示——当然这只是小样本——变数仍然很多。

莉亚·费格：本周将是重要风向标。特朗普周三晚间将就伊朗问题发表讲话，但无论其言论如何，伊朗已明确表达相反立场：特朗普宣称战争两周内结束，伊朗则称战争何时结束由他们说了算。我们已将对方逼入绝境，而眼前这些被列入目标清单的企业偏偏是特朗普政府的心头肉，局势恐怕难见转机。

布莱恩·巴雷特：莉亚，顺着你的话我想补充：最近几天有三段发言形成奇妙对比——特朗普说“谈判进展顺利”，伊朗称“根本未启动谈判”，接着皮特·赫格塞斯插话道（档案音频）：“我们也是谈判方，我们用炸弹谈判。”这句话精准概括了现状。

莉亚·费格：伊朗战争无疑将成为中期选举的争议焦点。虽然距选举还有数月，但现在正值初选季——这是我每年最爱的时段，因为各路政治狂人都会冒头。但我们确实需要讨论特朗普政府已开始威胁选举公正性的种种手段。《连线》资深政治记者戴维·吉尔伯特本周发表了精彩分析，其中重点提及《拯救美国法案》。你们熟悉这个吗？

布莱恩·巴雷特：略有耳闻，感觉不太妙。

佐伊·希弗：犀利点评。

莉亚·费格：这就是听众爱听“诡异谷”的原因——我们需要这种直率见解。

布莱恩·巴雷特：那我这么说：这法案简直糟透了。

莉亚·费格：完美，这正是我想听的。该法案本质是共和党针对“数百万移民每届选举涌入投票站帮民主党作弊”这一已被证伪阴谋论的回应。法案要求投票者出示护照或出生证明，这将剥夺数百万合格选民的投票权——很多人根本没有这些文件。法案已在众议院勉强通过，民主党正全力阻止其在参议院通过。几周前我和其他关注政治的人还在热议此事，旁人却茫然不知。但随着TSA经费短缺、政府部分停摆等事件发酵，特朗普已将此列为核心议题，宣称“必须通过《拯救美国法案》”。这只是特朗普政府施压手段之一，他们同时还在推行其他措施，比如特朗普历来憎恶的邮寄投票——尽管他自己也用过这种方式。

布莱恩·巴雷特：而且他本人曾受益于邮寄选票。奇怪的是特朗普似乎认为邮寄投票是民主党专利，其实很多共和党选民也用这种方式。

莉亚·费格：没错。反对邮寄投票反而损害了共和党基本盘——支持者因抵触该方式放弃投票，局面非常混乱。此外，当年散布选举阴谋论者如今被招募进各级政府机构，上任后仍未停止相关言行。政府甚至暗示选举日可能派遣移民海关执法局人员前往投票站。网友评论称“早知特朗普政府在搞这些动作，但没想到触手伸得这么广”。这是套系统性方案：如何彻底改变选举生态？他们提供了惊人路线图，我不得不“佩服”。

布莱恩·巴雷特：而且动态还在持续。周二特朗普签署行政令，要求各州在选举前60天向联邦政府提交合格选民名单，否则邮政系统将拒绝投递该州邮寄选票。需要明确的是：美国选举制度本质上是高度地方化的——这是有意设计的结果，联邦政府不应像特朗普期望的那样掌控选举。单一中央机构拥有过大选举权力可能造成严重危害。莉亚，你认为这些措施真正落地的可能性多大？《拯救美国法案》在参议院受阻，行政令很可能被法院驳回。我们知道特朗普想干什么——如我所言这非常糟糕——但他实际能做到多少？推动这些措施的意愿和执行机制究竟如何？

莉亚·费格：这个问题很好。初选期间很难断言，但这种“广撒网试探风向”的策略他们以往用得得心应手。他们对投票数据做了精细测算：比如要求提前60天登记，11月初的选举意味着9月初截止，这直接排除了在大学校园登记的学生选民。值得注意的是，共和党11月选情可能非常糟糕——民调数据不容乐观。煽动民众“若败选必是作弊所致”的言论，实则为可能失利预设借口。如果伊朗战争持续、旅行限制不解除（比如我在纽约机场被困八小时）……

布莱恩·巴雷特：莉亚已成单一议题选民了。

莉亚·费格：对，我的议题就是给TSA拨款和改善天气。总之我们正进入一个“预先找替罪羊”的时代：如果败选，责任绝不会归咎于共和党选民或战略家。

布莱恩·巴雷特：广告回来后，我们将带您走进Polymarket在华盛顿特区的快闪酒吧。请别走开。

几周前，火爆的线上预测市场平台Polymarket（用户可对现实事件结果下注）决定在华盛顿特区打造实体快闪酒吧“战情室”（注意不是沃尔夫·布利策那个《战情室》）。空间布满炫目屏幕，播放新闻、股价甚至彭博终端数据，让顾客边饮酒边下注边追踪全球动态。能出什么岔子呢？

玛克娜·凯莉（档案音频）：我刚进场。我们在外面等了快一个半小时。

布莱恩·巴雷特：这个仅开放周末的活动，我们派驻华盛顿记者玛克娜·凯莉前往探访。

玛克娜·凯莉（档案音频）：什么都没运转。只有几台平板电脑，有人在玩类似视频游戏的……

布莱恩·巴雷特：至少可以说这是场混乱的实验。嗨，玛克娜。

玛克娜·凯莉：很高兴来节目。

布莱恩·巴雷特：欢迎。还有我们预测市场专家凯特·尼布斯，她也有见解分享。嗨，凯特。

凯特·尼布斯：谢谢邀请。没亲身体验那个酒吧我其实挺遗憾。

玛克娜·凯莉：是吗？

凯特·尼布斯：是啊，毕竟我擅长折磨自己。

布莱恩·巴雷特：带我们回到现场吧。你去之前有何期待？实际看到什么？我感觉落差很大。

玛克娜·凯莉：Polymarket在X平台和新闻稿中的宣传让我期待很高：宣传图里有发光球体、彭博终端，人们应该在荧光闪烁的空间里边饮酒边下注，周围环绕无数屏幕，监控共和党提名人之争或伊朗战争等动态。结果当天下午5点开业时下着倾盆大雨，我们在门外淋雨苦等一个半小时，Polymarket员工只能歉疚地在外分发饮料。推迟一个半小时开门后，场内设施全部瘫痪。他们唯一兑现的承诺就是给到场者提供免费酒水。

佐伊·希弗：记者和普通顾客比例大概……

玛克娜·凯莉：很多路人因久候无果离场，但所有接到任务的记者都坚持等着。深夜陆续来了些人，包括DOGE币圈人士（档案音频）——

布莱恩·巴雷特：果然。

玛克娜·凯莉：他们和这个圈子有交集。我还看见穿Palantir连帽衫的人，有件T恤上印着“监控即新主权·Palantir”——这细节没写进报道，因为我完全忘了。

佐伊·希弗：哇。

布莱恩·巴雷特：在深入夜谈前，先听听Polymarket首席营销官乔什·塔克在现场承认窘境的录音（档案音频）：“因电路故障，我们必须重启所有电视屏幕。希望大家今晚玩得开心，这里有酒水餐食。我们将通宵修复，确保明天‘战情室’正常运作。感谢各位光临。”

玛克娜·凯莉（档案音频）：麻烦给我杯白葡萄酒。

未知说话者（档案音频）：红葡萄酒还是白葡萄酒？

玛克娜·凯莉（档案音频）：白葡萄酒。

未知说话者（档案音频）：长相思可以吗？

玛克娜·凯莉（档案音频）：很好，谢谢。

布莱恩·巴雷特：连你的点酒录音都收进来了。

莉亚·费格：酒品质如何？至少该提供顶级酒吧？这家公司赚那么多钱，居然连屏幕都搞不定。太混乱了。

玛克娜·凯莉：白葡萄酒还行，但小食只有椒盐脆饼和草莓菠萝串。第二天他们从别处订了印着“五角大楼披萨”的盒子装披萨——是的我去了两次。那晚多数设备能用了，但仍有黑屏。我从没见到真正的彭博终端，只有Polymarket自制的模拟终端。第二天顾客仍以猎奇者为主，不过我也遇到几位在Polymarket、Kalshi等平台下注的人。有位叫威廉的军方人士（不愿透露全名）说去年把全部退税投进了俄克拉荷马城体育博彩（档案音频）——

玛克娜·凯莉：你用Kalshi吗？

威廉（档案音频）：对。

玛克娜·凯莉：什么时候开始用的？

威廉（档案音频）：拿到退税的时候。我当时想：“这笔钱干嘛好呢？就投Kalshi吧。”

玛克娜·凯莉：他说自己盈亏在100美元内，没赚过大钱。不像传闻中那些靠内幕消息赚数百万的人，他只是觉得好玩。

布莱恩·巴雷特：凯特，你怎么看这种快闪活动？是Polymarket试图 legitimize 自身，还是纯营销噱头？结合预测市场爆炸性增长的现象，他们正竭力吸引用户沉迷其中。

凯特·尼布斯：这活动明显是想讨好华盛顿的记者们。玛克娜提到的Palantir连帽衫很有意思：就在酒吧开业同周，Polymarket宣布与Palantir合作，由后者协助维护体育博彩市场公正——抓内幕交易和操纵行为。我上周问Polymarket是否与Palantir有其他合作（当时想打听他们是否调查引发疑虑的伊朗相关投注），他们回答Palantir只协助体育板块。这很诡异，说明他们扩张迅速却杂乱无章。既然请动Palantir，为什么不先处理地缘政治投注而是盯着“疯狂三月”篮球赛？真是荒诞的时代。

莉亚·费格：这些举措显得零散，但整体来看意味着什么？玛克娜，你与这群人共度了两晚；凯特，这是你的专业领域。

布莱恩·巴雷特：目前已知两晚。

玛克娜·凯莉：就两晚！周日早上我还去了早午餐。

莉亚·费格：预测市场日益流行，成为一种文化现象。即便活动搞砸，他们仍吸引了关注，积累了去年还不存在的文化资本。你们怎么看？

凯特·尼布斯：只要特朗普政府执政，这股热潮不会消退。该政府对这行业极其友好：小唐纳德·特朗普是Polymarket和Kalshi的顾问，特朗普家族据传也在筹备自家预测平台“真相预测”（不过2025年底后再无消息）。无论好坏，这仅是开端。我上周参加Kalshi闭门会议时发现，他们重点展示的是如何深度嵌入全球金融体系，吸引大量金融机构参与。当天他们宣布获准使用保证金交易，这意味着机构资金将更快涌入市场。

玛克娜·凯莉：我的主要收获是：活动负责人乔什·塔克（就是播放录音那位）上一份工作是在Mr. Beast做病毒营销。即便对熟悉Polymarket的人而言，它目前仍是场奇观。酒吧选址也耐人寻味：距美国商品期货交易委员会仅一个街区，位于游说机构云集的K街，试图以派对形式宣告“我们来了”。但实际执行却漏洞百出：X平台宣传片里的高科技未来感，在现场几小时后只剩简陋粗糙。

凯特·尼布斯：更离谱的是：大多数Polymarket投注项目在美国仍不合法。他们专注造势而非完善产品。

布莱恩·巴雷特：总结一下：这场活动集齐了Palantir、DOGE币、小特朗普、Mr. Beast，唯独少了彭博终端——要素过于齐全。

莉亚·费格：完全是《连线》杂志的疯狂填词游戏。

佐伊·希弗：本期节目到此结束。提及的文章链接详见节目备注。《诡异谷》由Kaleidoscope Content制作，本期节目由阿德里亚娜·塔皮亚制作，阿马尔·拉尔在Macro Sound完成混音，普兰·班迪担任纽约录音师，马克·莱达负责旧金山录音室，金伯利·蔡担任数字产品高级经理，凯特·奥斯本任执行制片人，凯蒂·德拉蒙德为《连线》全球编辑总监。

英文来源：

The team is back this week to discuss how top US tech companies are increasingly finding themselves as targets in the ongoing war with Iran. They also give an inside view into how Polymarket’s pop-up bar in DC went sideways. Plus, our hosts go through the steps that the Trump administration is taking to control the upcoming midterm elections.
Articles mentioned in this episode:

• Iran Threatens to Start Attacking Major US Tech Firms on April 1
• Polymarket’s Coming-Out Party in Washington Was a Disaster
• This Is How Trump Is Already Threatening the Midterms
  You can follow Brian Barrett on Bluesky at @brbarrett, Zoë Schiffer on Bluesky at @zoeschiffer, and Leah Feiger on Bluesky at @leahfeiger. Write to us at [email protected].
  How to Listen
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  Transcript
  Note: This is an automated transcript, which may contain errors.
  Brian Barrett: Hey, it's Brian. Zoë, Leah, and I have really enjoyed being your new hosts these past few weeks, and we want to hear from you. If you like the show and have a minute, please leave us a review in the podcast or app of your choice. It really helps us reach more people, and for any questions and comments, you can always reach us at [email protected]. Thank you for listening. On to the show.
  Zoë Schiffer: Leah, did you make it to Chicago?
  Leah Feiger: Honestly, barely. I have spent more time in airports in the last three days than I care to admit.
  Brian Barrett: You told me yesterday that you were excited to be flying out of Newark instead of the other—which is the first time I've heard that.
  Leah Feiger: I was young when I said that.
  Zoë Schiffer: Welcome to WIRED's Uncanny Valley. I'm Zoë Schiffer, director of business and industry.
  Brian Barrett: I'm Brian Barrett, executive editor.
  Leah Feiger: And I'm Leah Feiger, senior politics editor.
  Zoë Schiffer: This week on the show, we have a pretty well-rounded episode for you all. A little bit of international politics as Iran threatens to target US tech firms. There's also election news as we're tracking Trump's attempts to control the midterms, and a scene report from our DC colleague who had the great assignment of hitting up the Polymarket pop-up bar, which was a bit of a Fyre Fest situation.
  Brian Barrett: To let people in behind the scenes of the magic of the Uncanny Valley podcast, we're recording this on a Wednesday. It's going to come out on Thursday. That's the magic. So, things could happen between then, but on this Wednesday, yesterday, Tuesday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that it planned to begin attacking more than a dozen American companies across the Middle East. If more of Iran's leaders are killed during the ongoing war, they'd made this threat before, but what was different is that they set a deadline to it. They said on April 1st, we are going to start targeting companies in these regions. There are 18 total companies on that. They actually gave a list. On that list include Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, IBM, Tesla, Palantir, a bunch more. As of now, that hasn't happened other than an attack that we can talk about later that sort of affects Amazon Web Services. But it does seem to be another one of these escalations. And I'm really curious what is going on with these companies, what obligations they have to their employees to protect them, what it means for all kinds of investment in that region, which has been increasingly important. It feels like it opens up a lot of serious questions. Regardless of whether these attacks go through—hopefully they don't—but it's really an escalatory time.
  Leah Feiger: I was pretty struck by parts of this where, you know, calling on employees of these tech firms in the region to distance themselves from workplaces, for residents living near offices of these companies to move away to a safe place, this is a very serious warning. And so much to me reminds us that what's happening here, this war that is very much becoming a war with a capital W is not Trump's childhood wars. We are in a globalized world where he is not going to be able to remove himself from the blowback if American companies are indeed attacked. This is very different than military. This is an impact that I think would be very hard to escape from beyond the fact that it's horrible, it's sad. These are people's lives.
  Zoë Schiffer: Yeah. I mean, we reached out to every company on the list. It turns out that they don't largely want to comment on their feelings about this or what they're doing. I actually was kind of surprised. I was like, I don't know, you're on a target list and you don't want to say anything?
  Leah Feiger: No, they don't want to share what their plans are. They don't want to say if they've moved out employees. No, but they don't even want to say if they're taking it seriously because if they're taking it seriously, they're not trusting that the US government and its military is going to be able to handle it. This is a lose-lose situation. You have Trump on one side posting messages about how the US is winning, and if it's not, then they're going to reign hail fire. You have to at least pretend if you're in charge of these companies that you believe that? While putting, of course, thousands of your employees at risk.
  Brian Barrett: And the US did say after this latest thing, there was a comment that someone gave that was basically like, "Well, we'll respond if they do something here," which is a little bit like, "We will definitely put up a stop sign after someone gets run over." I alluded to this before. Iran is willing to do this. They've already had two strikes on Amazon Web Services data centers last month and damaged another one. It is sort of the first publicly confirmed attack on American owned hyperscale cloud infrastructure. And I guess my question is, how much do we think the targets are sort of the symbolic headquarters, even if they're empty versus actual critical infrastructure or actual infrastructure, powering the cloud, manufacturing facilities, whatever is there, curiously what shaped those targets. Take again, hopefully it's all bluster and this will move on.
  Zoë Schiffer: I mean, but it does come on the heels of Sam Altman's trip to the Middle East with members of the Trump administration where he was there striking deals and presumably setting up what will become large scale data centers. So, he and other AI leaders have been eyeing that region as a really lucrative place to begin doing business or expanding business. And I think that that is something that, for example, Dario Amodei said, "Hey, we should be wary about putting data centers in the Middle East." And I think they're taking that seriously. It's been interesting though. I will say, I've reached out to people at Anthropic and sources at OpenAI being like, "What do you think of the war in Iran? What is top of mind for you right now?" On the whole, people who are working in these companies in San Francisco are like, "What war?" They are just focused on what is happening here at home and do not seem to be paying an enormous amount of attention. I don't think that's true for the executives, but the rank and file are shrugging.
  Brian Barrett: I'm a little surprised by that because a knock-on effect of all of this is a stock market that is way down, including tech companies have been really, really hit down 20 percent in some cases. Nvidia is really pretty far down, Meta—so, I'm a little surprised in that I feel like the IPO climate is going to be less hospitable to a lot of these companies who are looking for that for their exit. And a lot of people who have or invested in their companies have options at these companies, they're seeing their value dwindled by the day. So, it's a shame that it takes hitting their wallet to get people to pay attention, but presumably at some point.
  Zoë Schiffer: And I think if the effect on their wallets continues, we will see these people really, really care. I'm sure we will see chatter in Slack about this, but I think they're pretty used to the ups and downs. And so, while this is a pretty dramatic drop for some of the public companies, especially because when we're talking about say OpenAI, the thought was that they were eyeing an IPO near the end of the year. So, I think at least from the people I've talked to, which of course is a handful of the overall employee base, it's kind of like, well, a lot could change.
  Leah Feiger: This week is going to be a real bellwether as well. Trump delivers an address Wednesday night about Iran, but regardless in some ways of what Trump says, Iran has indicated that it feels the exact opposite. Trump says the war is over in two weeks. Iran says that the war is over when they say it's over, when they have won. So, we have backed them against the wall in a very serious way, and it doesn't really appear that there's an end in sight, especially if these are the kinds of companies on a target list, which are so near and dear to the Trump administration's heart.
  Brian Barrett: I'll say just one more thing on this off of what you just said, Leah, is that there were an amazing trifecta of quotes over the last couple of days where Trump said something like, "Negotiations are going great. We're making a lot of progress." Iran said, "We haven't even started negotiations, it’s not going to happen." And then Pete Hegseth jumped in and said—
  Pete Hegseth, archival audio: We see ourselves as part of this negotiation as well. We negotiate with bombs.
  Brian Barrett: We'll negotiate with bombs. And that really kind of sums up where we're at.
  Leah Feiger: And of course, the Iran war is going to continue to be a point of contention probably going into the midterms. We have months to go here, but we are deep in primary season right now, which as you guys know, is one of my favorite times of the year because it's a moment where really we get our political crazies out. I love it, but we really do have to talk about all of the ways that the Trump administration is already making moves that threaten the integrity of the elections. David Gilbert, senior politics reporter at WIRED published a really good writeup on this this week. And one of the main things that this reporting draws attention to is the SAVE America Act. Are you guys super familiar with that?
  Brian Barrett: I'm familiar-ish in that it seems bad.
  Zoë Schiffer: Strong take.
  Leah Feiger: This was a strong take. This is why people come to Uncanny Valley. It's for these kinds of takes.
  Brian Barrett: OK, how about these? It seems really bad.
  Leah Feiger: Good. Even better. Yes, that's what I was looking for. Look, it's basically the Republican response to the debunked conspiracy theory that millions of immigrants are flooding polling stations every election, voting for Democrats, making lives really, really bad for Republicans stealing elections around the country. This act would disenfranchise millions of people because it would require anyone trying to vote to produce a passport or a birth certificate, which is something that a lot of voting eligible Americans do not have access to. It's narrowly past the House. Democrats are still trying very, very hard to block its passage in the Senate. It has come up in conversation a lot. I feel like this is something that I and other politics focused people were talking a lot about a few weeks ago where everyone else would go, "What is that?" But now with everything with the TSA not getting funded and partial government shutdowns, et cetera, Trump has made this a core point of his administration. It's like, "We have to pass the SAVE Act." So, this is just one of the ways that the Trump administration is putting a lot of pressure and trying to make this happen that would result in a very inequitable midterms for all. And amongst that, they have a bunch of other things that they're working on as well, the war against mail-in voting. Trump historically hates it, even though he loves to mail in votes himself.
  Brian Barrett: And has benefited from mail-in voting, I'd say.
  Leah Feiger: Oh, yeah.
  Brian Barrett: I feel like it is weird to me that Trump seems to think that mail-in voting is only a Democratic thing. A lot of Republican voters use mail-in voting.
  Leah Feiger: Yes. And if anything, all of the pushing against mail-in voting has frankly hurt their bottom line a little bit because all these Republicans are like, "Oh God, screw mail-in voting." And then they're not mail-in voting. It's very messy, and that one is a very strange one, but they've continued to work on that. Election deniers are across government right now, recruited because they were boosting election conspiracy theories back when Trump was out of office. They have not stopped doing so since being appointed. They're all over the government in a variety of agencies. And even right down to possible concerns day of, the administration has suggested the possibility of sending ICE agents to election sites. So, there's a lot here. And I was really taken, I think, with some of the comments on wired.com or online just about how people were like, "Oh yes, this is horrible." I knew that the Trump administration was doing all these things. I think people were a little bit shocked by how many hands were in so many different pockets This is a very comprehensive approach. How do you change an entire vision of elections? This is it. It's an unbelievable roadmap. I've got to hand it to them.
  Brian Barrett: Well, and then it continues, right? It's a dynamic thing. On Tuesday, Trump signed an executive order that is sort of part of that war on mail-in voting that we talked about. It would require states to give a list of eligible voters to the US government 60 days before the election in order for the right to have the postal service deliver those mail-in ballots. So, that's been a long time. No, no. I think one thing that I want to make really clear is that elections in the US are inherently structurally and for good reasons, very, very localized. You have your local election, and that is though by design, there is a reason the federal government doesn't control elections in the way that Trump seems to want to. For obvious reasons, one central authority having that much power over elections could do a lot of harm. Leah, my question for you is, how likely is any of this to actually get through? The SAVE Act is stalled and the Senate doesn't want to go for it. The executive order is going to get probably shot down in courts, although who knows? We know what Trump wants to do. And again, it's really bad as my analysis showed, but how much can he actually do? What's the appetite to actually push this stuff through and what are the mechanisms for that?
  Leah Feiger: That's a really good question. And it's a little bit hard to say right now while we're in this primary period, which is why this approach, which is just throw a ton of spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks has worked for them very well in the past. So, they're making a lot of really educated guesses on what that would mean for them and what that would mean on the very specific voting breakdowns. When you say, for example, registering 60 days beforehand to vote, the election is in early November, that brings us to early September. That cuts out college students that are registering to vote on their college campuses. That's who we're looking. So, it's a very specific targeted approach. Also, I guess to be clear, there's a very decent chance that the Republicans do very, very badly come November. Things are not looking good for them polling-wise. And so, to amp up your populace into being like, "If we lose, it's because of cheating." And they're like, "They're not going to do great." If the war in Iran continues, if we all continue to not be able to travel, or some of us spent eight hours straight in the New York airport—
  Brian Barrett: Leah is a single issue voter now.
  Leah Feiger: I'm a single issue voter, and it's about funding TSA and making weather better. It's all to say that we're hitting an era where they're hedging their bets and going like, "If we lose, we need to figure out who to blame it on." And it's certainly not going to be Republican voters or Republican strategists.
  Brian Barrett: Coming up after the break, we're going to take you inside Polymarket's pop-up bar in DC. Stay with us.
  So, a few weeks ago, Polymarket, which is the online prediction market where people bet on the outcomes of real world events, it's insanely popular—you might have an account—ecided to create an in real life experience in the form of a pop-up bar, which they called the situation room, not to be confused with Wolf Blitzer's Situation Room, no betting there. The space was outfitted with tons of bright TV screens, showing everything from the news to stock quotes, even a Bloomberg terminal. So, you got to monitor global events while you bet and drink. What could go wrong?
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: So, I just got in. We're waiting outside for an hour and a half almost.
  Brian Barrett: It was a one weekend only type of thing. So, we sent our DC-based reporter Makena Kelly to check it out.
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: Nothing is working. There's a couple of tablets set up. I'm seeing some people playing what looks like a video game of—
  Brian Barrett: It seems to have been a messy experiment, to say the least. Hey, Makena.
  Makena Kelly: Good to be here.
  Brian Barrett: Good to have you. And here's Kate Knibbs, our in-house expert on all things prediction markets, who also has some thoughts to share. Hey, Kate.
  Kate Knibbs: Hi, thanks for having me. And I'm truly sad that I missed going there in real life.
  Makena Kelly: I don't know.
  Kate Knibbs: Yes, but it's only because I hate myself.
  Brian Barrett: OK. So, take us there. When you went, you visited the pop-up, what were you expecting and what did you actually see? I feel like there's a gap there.
  Makena Kelly: Yeah. So, from the promotional materials that Polymarket put on X and blasted in the press release, my expectations were really high. They had this orb in the promotional images. There's all these Bloomberg terminals. People were supposed to be downing drinks and placing bets and wandering around in this kind of highly fluorescent room where there was just endless screens, endless content to be monitoring whatever situation you wanted to monitor, whether that was who the next Republican presidential nominee was going to be or the war in Iran or things like that. And so, when I got there, it was supposed to open at 5:0 PM. It was pouring rain and we all waited outside for about an hour and a half, getting soaked, getting drinks handed to us outside by a very apologetic Polymarket. And when doors opened, about an hour and a half after they originally scheduled to, nothing worked. Absolutely nothing worked. And really the only promise that they kept was a free night of drinks for anyone who showed up.
  Zoë Schiffer: What was the ratio of reporters to—
  Makena Kelly: Yeah. So, the ratio to reporters and everyone else, there was a lot of people who were leaving the line because it was starting to feel like this place was never going to open. And so, anyone who was a casual, "I'm going to show up here for a drink and gawk at the spectacle," for the most part left and all the reporters who were assigned to this, all for the most part stuck around. And later in the night after things had opened up, more people continued to come in. Some of the DOGE guys were there—
  Brian Barrett: Of course.
  Makena Kelly: —that we saw mixing around because they were part of the same kind of social circle—
  Brian Barrett: Of course.
  Makena Kelly: —as these folks. I saw some guys wearing Palantir hoodies and a shirt that said—this didn't make into the story because I had completely forgotten—but he was wearing this shirt that said, "Surveillance is the new sovereignty Palantir something, something."
  Zoë Schiffer: Wow.
  Brian Barrett: Before we get too deep in the night, I do want to say not to make you relive this, but we do have tape of Josh Tucker, chief marketing officer of Polymarket. At the moment he let everyone know how badly things were going. Can we play that real quick?
  Josh Tucker, archival audio: As a result of an electrical issue earlier tonight, we had to reset all of the TVs. With that being said, we want you all to have a great evening tonight. There are drinks, food, past, apps. We are here to answer any questions. Overnight, we will remedy it so that the situation can be properly monitored tomorrow. Appreciate you all coming out. We're so excited to meet you. Thank you all. And let's go back to you.
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: Yes. Could I get a glass of white, please?
  Unidentified speaker, archival audio: Yeah. Did you want a red or a white?
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: A white please.
  Unidentified speaker, archival audio: Yeah. Do you like a sauvignon blanc?
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: Sauvignon blanc's great. Thanks so much.
  Brian Barrett: I love that we also got your drink order in there.
  Leah Feiger: Was it good? Was the alcohol at least top shelf? That's the part to me that I'm like, this company makes so much money and they couldn't even put their screens together. I don't know. This is so messy.
  Makena Kelly: So, yes, I had a glass of white wine. It was totally fine, but the apps that were passed around, I was a little bit disappointed because the things that I saw were some pretzel bites and then these little skewers of pineapple strawberry pineapple, and that was about it for the most part. On the second night, they brought in pizza from somewhere else and put it in these boxes that said Pentagon Pizza on them. So, there was more food the second night. But yeah, I got to say I was a little disappointed—
  Kate Knibbs: So, you went twice?
  Makena Kelly: Yes, Kate. I went twice.
  Kate Knibbs: I missed that.
  Zoë Schiffer: Wait, is the Pentagon Pizza thing a joke about the pizza predicting the war?
  Makena Kelly: Yeah.
  Zoë Schiffer: Oh, my God.
  Makena Kelly: Because they had these Pentagon pizza trackers up. When I returned the second night, yes, I came back the second night. Everything was working for the most part. There were still some screens that were turned off, but I never saw any actual Bloomberg terminals. There were some monitory Bloomberg type terminal things that it looked like Polymarket had developed themselves, but the real $50,000 Bloomberg terminal was nowhere to be found. And yeah, the second night, again, it was mostly people looking to gawk at the event, except I did find a couple of people who placed some bets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. One was named William, and he said he was a member of the military, wouldn't give me his full name. And he last year got involved in this for the first time by putting in, I think, all of his tax return into Oklahoma City sports betting.
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: So, you used Kalshi?
  William, archival audio: Yes.
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: When did you first start using the service?
  William, archival audio: Probably when I got my tax return back.
  Makena Kelly, archival audio: OK.
  William, archival audio: So, I filed my taxes pretty early and I was like, "Oh, sweet. I got my tax return. What am I going to do with it?" So, I was like, "I'm going to just put it on Kalshi."
  Makena Kelly: He said that he goes up and down 100 dollars, but he hasn't made any major winnings. Some of the stuff that we've heard. Some people making crazy insider bets making millions and millions of dollars. This is just a guy who was interested in this and just plays it for fun, it sounds like.
  Brian Barrett: Kate, what do you see when you see a pop-up like this and Polymarket trying to—is it an attempt to legitimize itself to just a marketing stunt? And how does it tie into what you're seeing with these companies anyway, that there's the explosive growth that they've got trying to reach out to so many people and getting so many people hooked on what they're offering?
  Kate Knibbs: I mean, this particular event definitely seems like a very bald effort to woo DC-based journalists, if nothing else. One thing that Makena said sort of encapsulates what's going on right now, the thing about the guys in the Palantir hoodies. So, I think it was the same week that this bar opened. Polymarket announced a partnership with Palantir and Palantir is helping them protect the integrity of their sports market. So, Palantir is going to be basically attempting to help Polymarket catch insider traders and market manipulators in all the sports games, which is kind of wild. I actually asked Polymarket last week whether they had any other deals with Palantir when I was trying to get them to say anything about whether they were investigating the Iran bets that have been raising a lot of eyebrows. And they said that Palantir was only helping them with sports, which I thought was freaking weird. And it speaks to how they're rapidly expanding, but doing so in this really messy ad hoc way that doesn't really make a lot of sense. Because I was like, "If you're going to get Palantir involved, why wouldn't you have them do this geopolitical stuff instead of March Madness?" Yeah, wild, wild times.
  Leah Feiger: It does all feel like quite piecemeal, but sort of together as a big step back, what does all of this say to you guys? Makena, you have now spent two, read two nights with all of these people. Kate, this is your beach.
  Brian Barrett: That we know of.
  Makena Kelly: Just two guys, just two.
  Leah Feiger: That we know of. Maybe, yeah.
  Makena Kelly: And I went back for brunch on Sunday morning.
  Leah Feiger: What does this say about this increasing popularity, the power of prediction markets, and how this is becoming really a cultural phenomenon. The fact that they were able to get folks to come out for this, to get excited about this, even as it all vaguely blew up in their faces, their name is out there. The power, the cultural capital here that didn't exist a year ago is very much present. What does this say to you?
  Kate Knibbs: I mean, I don't think it's going to subside anytime soon, at least not while the Trump administration is in power. The Trump administration is so, so friendly to this industry. Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi. The Trump family is still prepping, allegedly prepping its own prediction market, truth predict, although I haven't actually heard anything about that since late 2025. Got to check on that. But yeah, this is definitely, I think, the beginning of something for better or for worse. So, one of the reasons I was just telling you guys about my ill-fated travels home to Chicago from New York, I was at this Kalshi conference last week that wasn't open to the public, so it was different from the Polymarket bar, but who it was for was really interesting to me. It was very, very focused on basically highlighting the ways that Kalshi is already super entrenched in the global financial system and has all of these big finance players involved. And it was really eye-opening how far they've already gone down that road. They announced that day that they had gotten approval for margining, and that basically means that we're going to see a lot of big institutions putting way more money into these markets sooner rather than later.
  Makena Kelly: Yeah. I think my main takeaway from the event and the thing that stood out to me the most and that I put in the piece is that the guy who was running it, Josh Tucker, who made that announcement that we played the tape of earlier, his last job was at Mr. Beast doing viral marketing. And I think we talk about where Polymarket is right now very much, even with people who are familiar with the name and all that, it's very much a spectacle. This is very much playing on that and trying to grow its kind of name. And then when I was at the bar too, it was only a block away from the CFTC. On K Street, which colloquially in DC is known as lobbyist central and then a block away from the one regulator who regulates it trying to make this big party saying that this is our coming out party and we're here to have this conversation. And they're there for the spectacle about blowing up all this stuff. But when it comes to actually following through with the party and the planning or having this kind of productive discussion, that really was nowhere to be seen. The promotional material on X promoting this event by Polymarket made this out to be a very highly produced event that was going to be kind of otherworldly and highly technical. But after spending several hours here, the whole thing is kind of janky.
  Kate Knibbs: It's super bonkers to me too, because Polymarket had that whole party in DC. And as of now, most of Polymarket, you're still not legally allowed to bet on from the US. So, they're really focusing on getting their name out there over people actually using the product.
  Brian Barrett: Just to recap, we had Palantir, DOGE, Donald Trump Jr., Mr. Beast, and an absent Bloomberg terminal. I feel like we're checking a lot of boxes with this one event.
  Leah Feiger: This is WIRED Mad Libs in every way, shape, or form. Yeah.
  Zoë Schiffer: That's our show for today. We'll link to all the stories we spoke about in the show notes. Uncanny Valley is produced by Kaleidoscope Content. Adriana Tapia produced this episode. It was mixed by Amar Lal at Macro Sound. Pran Bandi is our New York studio engineer. Mark Leyda is our San Francisco studio engineer. Kimberly Chua is our digital production senior manager. Kate Osborn is our executive producer, and Katie Drummond is WIRED's global editorial director.