内容来源：https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/03/anthropic-is-having-a-moment-in-the-private-markets-spacex-could-spoil-the-party/

内容总结：

私募股权二级市场格局生变：Anthropic一票难求，SpaceX上市前吸金效应凸显

在私募股权二级市场交易领域深耕十余年的资深投行人士格伦·安德森观察到，当前市场正上演一场由Anthropic、OpenAI和SpaceX主导的复杂叙事。作为专注于非上市公司证券的投行Rainmaker Securities的总裁，安德森指出，市场情绪已悄然转向。

Anthropic：需求“难以满足”的明星标的
安德森的观察与近期市场报道一致：市场对人工智能公司Anthropic的股份需求近乎“贪婪”。有报道称，买方机构已准备好20亿美元资金意图购入其股份，但市场上“几乎没有卖家”。安德森认为，此前Anthropic与美国国防部的公开对峙事件，意外地提升了其公众形象，使其故事更具独特性，从而助推了需求。

OpenAI：市场热度相对降温，估值出现折价
相比之下，OpenAI的二级市场交易则显得“不那么活跃”。安德森证实，其二级市场交易隐含的公司估值约为7650亿美元，较其最新一轮8520亿美元的一级市场估值有明显折价。为规范交易，OpenAI已通过合作银行建立官方渠道，并警告投资者警惕高费率经纪商。目前，包括摩根士丹利和高盛在内的银行已开始向高净值客户提供免附带权益费的OpenAI股份。

SpaceX：穿越周期的“常胜将军”，IPO前夕供需逆转
太空探索公司SpaceX则呈现出截然不同的景象。安德森指出，在2022至2024年许多非上市公司股价大幅回调的时期，SpaceX是极少数未受冲击的公司之一，其估值走势“几乎一直稳健向上”。他将其归因于管理层在融资定价上的克制，为早期投资者带来了超过100倍的惊人回报。

随着SpaceX本周秘密提交IPO申请，预计融资规模高达500亿至750亿美元，二级市场动态瞬间改变。安德森表示，买方需求激增，但卖方惜售情绪浓厚，因为股东们正等待即将到来的公开上市流动性事件。

市场流动性面临考验：谁先上市谁占优？
这种变化为同样计划今年上市的OpenAI和Anthropic带来了挑战。安德森直言：“SpaceX将吸收大量市场流动性。分配给IPO的资金总量是有限的。”这意味着，作为可能率先上市的企业，SpaceX将优先吸纳资金，而后续上市者可能面临更严格的审视和相对紧张的资金环境。

尽管当前人工智能领域备受瞩目，但这一市场规律同样适用。选择何时上市成为一场精妙的博弈：先行者测试市场接受度，而后来者则可能面临“盛宴已过”的局面。私募股权二级市场的焦点，正随着巨头们的资本化步伐而迅速转移。

中文翻译：

自2010年起，格伦·安德森便开始从事非上市公司股权交易中介业务。彼时专注于后期私募市场的机构投资者屈指可数，而如今他表示这类机构已数以千计。

作为专注私募证券市场的投行Rainmaker Securities的总裁，安德森亲历了二级市场历史上最惊心动魄的重要时刻。该公司促成约1000家非上市企业股票交易，在他看来，当前市场叙事主线围绕三大主角展开：Anthropic、OpenAI与SpaceX。

核心结论是：实际剧情远比新闻标题所呈现的更为复杂。

安德森对Anthropic的判断与彭博社本周早前报道相符：市场对其股票的需求已近乎狂热。彭博社援引Next Round Capital创始人兼CEO肯·斯迈思的表述称，买家向其机构透露已备妥20亿美元现金准备投入Anthropic，而与此同时OpenAI约6亿美元待售股份却无人问津。

安德森在Rainmaker观察到类似景象。"我们市场上最难获取的股票就是Anthropic，"他昨日午后从迈阿密住所接受TechCrunch采访时表示，"根本找不到卖家。"

安德森指出，需求激增的部分原因在于Anthropic与美国国防部的公开对峙——这场风波初看像是公司危机，最终却转化为意外馈赠。"应用程序人气飙升，民众将这家敢于对抗政府巨头的企业奉为英雄，"他分析道，"这强化了其品牌叙事，使其与OpenAI的差异化更为显著。"

这种差异化对投资者正变得日益重要。多年来市场盛行"全面押注"逻辑，但安德森注意到，如今许多机构投资者仍希望同时布局Anthropic与OpenAI。"最终哪种AI模型会胜出尚无定论，"他表示，但至少在二级市场上，势头已经转变。

这并非意味着OpenAI已跌落悬崖。安德森对这种非此即彼的解读稍显保留："我不认为这是二选一的命题。"但他承认市场热情已然不同："当前OpenAI的市场活跃度远不及Anthropic。"

关于估值，安德森基本证实了彭博社的报道：二级市场上OpenAI股票交易对应的公司估值约为7650亿美元，较其最新8520亿美元的一级市场估值存在明显折价。他谨慎表示数据凭记忆提供，但认为彭博报道的数值"处于合理区间"。

OpenAI自身正试图加强二级交易管控。公司发言人向彭博社强调："任何声称能提供OpenAI股权（包括通过SPV）的机构都应引起高度警惕"，并指出公司已通过银行建立免手续费的授权交易渠道，以对抗高费率中介模式。

颇具意味的是——至少现阶段如此——据彭博社报道，摩根士丹利和高盛等投行已开始向高净值客户提供OpenAI股票且不收取超额收益提成。而高盛为寻求Anthropic投资渠道的客户仍按惯例收取15%-20%的利润提成。

在这场品牌博弈中，SpaceX显得独树一帜。安德森描述其为Rainmaker交易体系中少数未受2022至2024年私募市场暴跌冲击的标的——彼时许多非上市公司股价较峰值下挫60%-70%（此前估值曾急速攀升）。这家火箭与卫星巨头"始终保持着稳健上升曲线"。

作为与该公司及其早期投资者存在利益关联的业内人士，安德森将SpaceX的成功归因于管理层对定价的克制——未在每轮融资或要约收购中追求极致溢价。"许多企业难以抗拒每轮融资都追求股价最大化的诱惑，"他指出，"问题在于这未给错误预留任何缓冲空间。"

相比之下，SpaceX通过"避免过度贪婪"的保守策略，为早期投资者创造了惊人回报。"可以想象2015年入局的投资者现在获得何等收益，"安德森举例道：SpaceX在2015年谷歌与富达联合注资10亿美元时估值约120亿美元，按此价格投资的持有人目前收益已超百倍——该公司在计划IPO前的估值已突破1万亿美元。

这场IPO似乎已近在咫尺。SpaceX本周提交保密上市申请，可能缔造史上最大规模IPO之一。据传埃隆·马斯克拟于6月募集500亿至750亿美元，仅有沙特阿美2019年上市时1.7万亿美元的估值规模可与之比肩。

不出所料，安德森透露上市传闻已改变SpaceX二级市场动态。"今日我看到大量SpaceX投资者涌来询问'能否提供SpaceX股票？'"他描述道，"买方需求极为活跃。"但供给正在枯竭：公司越接近IPO，现有股东出售意愿越低，因为流动性事件已清晰可见。

这使OpenAI与Anthropic陷入微妙处境。据报道两家公司都在探索今年上市的可能性，但安德森指出SpaceX的率先行动将大规模测试市场承受力，后来者将处于劣势。"SpaceX将吸收大量流动性，"他直言不讳，"市场分配给IPO的资金总量有限。"先行者抢占先机，后来者则面临更严苛的审视与可能缩水的资本。

这种动态在每个所谓垂直领域反复上演，即使当前备受瞩目的AI公司也无法完全免疫。过早启动IPO者将成为市场接纳度的试金石，等待他人先行则可能错失最大额的投资支票。

更多与安德森的对话内容将收录于每周二更新的StrictlyVC Download播客节目。欢迎收听近期节目，包括对Whoop首席执行官威尔·艾哈迈德及投资人比尔·格利的专访。

英文来源：

Glen Anderson has been brokering trades in private company shares since 2010, back when the number of institutional investors focused on the late-stage private market could be counted on two hands. Today, he says, there are thousands.
As president of the investment bank Rainmaker Securities, which focuses solely on private securities markets and facilitates transactions in roughly 1,000 stocks, Anderson has a front-row seat to one of the most nail-bitingly large moments in the history of the secondary market. And right now, he suggests, the narrative has three main characters: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX.
The upshot: the storyline is more complicated than the headlines suggest.
Anderson’s read on Anthropic is consistent with what Bloomberg reported earlier this week: demand for the company’s shares has become almost insatiable. Bloomberg quoted Ken Smythe, founder and CEO of Next Round Capital, saying that buyers had indicated to his outfit that they had $2 billion of cash ready to deploy into Anthropic, even as roughly $600 million in OpenAI shares that investors are trying to sell haven’t found takers.
Anderson sees something similar at Rainmaker. “The hardest stock to source in our marketplace is Anthropic,” he told TechCrunch yesterday afternoon from his Miami home. “There’s just no sellers.”
Part of what turbocharged that demand, Anderson argues, was Anthropic’s very public standoff with the Department of Defense — a turn of events that initially seemed like bad news for the company but has wound up becoming a gift.
“The app got more popular, people rallied around the company as kind of a hero, taking on big government,” he said. “I think it amplified the story and made it even more differentiated from OpenAI.”
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That distinction is becoming increasingly meaningful to investors navigating a market where, for years, the prevailing logic was to bet on everyone. Anderson notes that many institutional investors still want exposure to both Anthropic and OpenAI. “The jury’s still out,” he said, on which AI model will ultimately win – but the momentum, at least in the secondary market, has shifted.
That doesn’t mean OpenAI has fallen off a cliff. Anderson pushes back slightly on a binary reading of the situation.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a one-or-the-other conversation,” he said.
But the excitement isn’t there. “It’s not nearly as vibrant a market as Anthropic right now,” he acknowledged.
On valuation, Anderson broadly confirmed Bloomberg’s reporting that OpenAI shares on the secondary market are trading as if the company were valued at $765 billion — an appreciable discount to the company’s newest $852 billion primary-round valuation. He cautioned that he was working from memory, but said the Bloomberg figure was “in the right range.”
OpenAI itself has tried to assert more control over secondary trading. “People should be extremely cautious of any firm that purports to have access to OpenAI equity, including through an SPV,” an OpenAI spokesperson told Bloomberg, noting the company had established authorized channels through banks, with no fees, to counter what it described as a high-fee broker model.
Perhaps tellingly — at least for now — banks including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have begun offering OpenAI shares to their high-net-worth clients without charging carry fees, according to Bloomberg. Goldman, meanwhile, is charging its customary carry – often 15% to 20% of profits – for clients seeking Anthropic exposure.
What none of this accounts for is SpaceX, which stands apart amid shifting sentiment around these other powerful brands. Anderson describes it as one of the only names in Rainmaker’s universe that never experienced the punishing correction that hit much of the private market between 2022 and 2024, a period when many private companies’ shares fell 60% to 70% from their peaks (after their valuations were run up just as fast).
The rocket and satellite behemoth has “been pretty much consistently up and to the right,” Anderson said.
Anderson, who, naturally, has an economic interest in flattering the company and its earlier backers, credits SpaceX’s management with disciplined pricing and not squeezing every last dollar out of each funding round or tender offer.
“A lot of companies will fall for the temptation to maximize the price of their stock in every round,” he said. “The problem is that that doesn’t leave any room for error.”
SpaceX, by contrast, played it conservatively, by “not getting too greedy,” and the payoff for earlier investors has been enormous. “You can imagine if someone got in in 2015 what kind of gain they’re sitting on right now,” said Anderson.
To put a finer point on that comment: SpaceX was valued at roughly $12 billion in 2015, when Google and Fidelity jointly invested $1 billion in the company. Someone who got in at that price is now sitting on a gain of more than 100x, with the company valued at more than $1 trillion ahead of its planned IPO.
That IPO is now imminent, seemingly. SpaceX filed confidentially this week for an initial public offering, setting the stage for what could be one of the largest market debuts in history, with Elon Musk reportedly aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, possibly in June. Only Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut, which valued the energy giant at $1.7 trillion, has come close.
Unsurprisingly, the rumored filing has already changed the dynamics of the secondary market for SpaceX shares, according to Anderson.
“Today, I saw a flood of SpaceX investors coming to me saying, ‘Can you give me SpaceX?’” he noted. “It’s been a very active buy side.” But supply is drying up. The closer a company gets to an IPO, the less incentive existing shareholders have to sell because they can see the liquidity event on the horizon.
That’s where things get a little dicier for OpenAI and Anthropic. Both companies are reportedly exploring public offerings of their own and have signaled they could move this year. But SpaceX, by filing first, is about to test the market’s appetite in a major way, and Anderson suggested that whoever follows will be at a disadvantage.
“SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity,” he said flatly. “There’s only so much money out there allocated to IPOs.” The first mover gets to the trough first; those who follow face both more scrutiny and, potentially, less capital.
It’s a dynamic that plays out in every so-called vertical and from which the AI companies aren’t completely immune, despite the attention being showered on them right now. Time your IPO too early and you’re the one testing market receptivity. Wait for someone else to go first, and you may find the biggest checks have already been written.
You can hear more of our interview with Anderson in the upcoming episode of the StrictlyVC Download podcast, which drops every Tuesday. In the meantime, check out recent episodes, including those with Whoop CEO Will Ahmed and investor Bill Gurley.