内容来源：https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/22/after-shocking-quarter-ibm-insists-that-ai-isnt-killing-the-mainframe/

内容总结：

IBM财报暴雷：营收不及预期，大型主机业务断崖式下滑42%

周三，IBM正式发布财报，结果正如外界此前预料的那般惨淡。尽管这家拥有115年历史的老牌科技巨头依然保持着强劲的“造血”能力——季度营收172亿美元、毛利润99亿美元（毛利率近58%）、净利润22亿美元——但其整体业绩仍远低于华尔街预期。

由于业绩“严重偏离预期”，IBM首席执行官阿尔文·克里什纳与董事会罕见地采取了预警措施，提前向投资者披露“业绩表现比我们预想的更差”。上周，克里什纳发布《致投资者信》分享初步数据，指出公司至关重要的“基础设施”业务收入惨淡，利润率也将遭受冲击。消息公布后，IBM股价单日暴跌25%，创下其史上最大单日跌幅。在此之前，得益于AI数据中心建设热潮的全面提振，IBM股价在克里什纳执掌的六年里一直表现良好。

周三，IBM同时下调了全年增长预期，意味着这一糟糕的季度将拖累全年表现。罪魁祸首正是公司的“现金牛”——大型主机业务，该板块收入同比暴跌42%。正如首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺在季度投资者电话会上解释的，IBM每卖出1美元的大型主机硬件，就能带动3美元的软件收入，因此这一下滑将产生连锁反应。

然而，CEO和CFO在电话会上反复强调，这只是“暂时性波动”，情况很快会好转。他们解释称，本季度原本应购买新主机的“数十家”客户选择了观望。虽然数量看似不多，但大型主机系统单价动辄数十万至数百万美元，加上后续的维护合同和软件费用，能带来数倍于此的长期收入。

值得注意的是，正是同一股AI热潮“成也萧何，败也萧何”。克里什纳表示，这些客户没有购买新主机，而是将预算转向了其他硬件设备。由于AI建设热潮导致数据中心设备和PC成本飙升15%至30%，客户不得不将预算重新分配。“当他们面临这种极端成本压力时，便决定将资金转移至那些涨价最猛的领域。”戴尔、惠普等企业级硬件制造商也已发出类似警告，称AI扩张导致的组件（如内存）涨价已迫使他们上调产品价格，苹果亦持相同观点。

不过克里什纳承诺，这些客户最终仍会购买新主机及配套软件合同。他透露，部分客户实际上已在当季下单。“我们没有看到任何客户脱离大型主机平台的迹象。”他表示。市场将拭目以待——事实上，数十年来科技行业一直在预言“大型主机之死”，或许连AI也无法将其终结。

中文翻译：

周三，IBM正式公布财报，业绩之惨淡如同众人预想的那样。这家拥有115年历史的企业尽管依然现金充沛——当季营收172亿美元、毛利润99亿美元、利润率近58%、净利润22亿美元——但其业绩仍远不及华尔街预期。由于此次业绩严重偏离预期，IBM首席执行官阿尔温德·克里希纳与董事会采取前所未有的举措，提前向投资者发出预警，称财报"比我们预期的更糟"，让大家先睹为快。

他上周发布了一封"致投资者信"，披露了初步业绩。信中预警称，在公司至关重要的"基础设施"类别中，收入惨淡，并指出利润率也将受到冲击。公司股价随即暴跌25%，创下史上最大单日跌幅。在此之前，受人工智能数据中心热潮带动全行业水涨船高的影响，该公司股价在克里希纳执掌的六年间一直表现良好。

周三，IBM还下调了全年增长预期，这意味着这个糟糕的季度将影响全年业绩。罪魁祸首是什么？IBM的现金牛业务——大型主机——收入下降了42%。

这是一个连锁问题，因为正如首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺在季度投资者电话会议上所解释的那样，IBM每卖出1美元的大型主机硬件，就能获得3美元的软件收入。

然而，首席执行官和首席财务官在电话会议上坚称，这只是暂时波动，一切很快会好起来。

他们表示，原因是"数十家"本应在当季购买新大型主机的客户选择了不买。这听起来客户数量不多，但大型主机是价值数十万至数百万美元的系统，加上维护合同和软件，还能带来数百万美元的额外收入。

同样是推动IBM水涨船高的人工智能热潮，也让它陷入了困境。

克里希纳解释道，这些客户没有购买新大型主机，而是采购了其他硬件。他们面临着数据中心设备和PC成本高达15%至30%的惊人涨幅。

克里希纳说："当他们面临这个问题时，就决定把预算转移到那些价格暴涨的领域。"

戴尔和惠普等企业硬件制造商已发出警告，人工智能建设热潮导致内存等组件成本上涨，迫使他们提高价格。苹果也表达了同样的看法。

但克里希纳承诺，这些客户最终仍会购买他们的大型主机——连同新的软件合同。事实上，他表示其中一些客户在本季度已经这么做了。"我们没有发现客户有放弃大型主机的迹象，"他说。

我们只能拭目以待。但科技行业几十年来一直预言大型主机行将消亡。也许连人工智能都无法将其终结。

英文来源：

On Wednesday, IBM officially reported earnings and the news was as bad as everyone knew it would be.
While the 115-year-old company still generates boatloads of cash — $17.2 billion in revenue, $9.9 billion in gross profit, nearly 58% margins, and $2.2 billion in net earnings for the quarter — its results fell well short of Wall Street’s expectations.
It was such a bad miss that IBM CEO Arvind Krishna and the board took an unprecedented step of warning investors ahead of time that the earnings “was worse than our expectations,” offering everyone a sneak peek.
He published a “letter to investors,” last week sharing preliminary results. It warned of abysmal revenue in the company’s all-important “infrastructure” category and said that profit margins were also going to take a hit. The company’s stock instantly tanked 25%, it’s biggest single-day decline ever. Until then, the stock had performed well under Krishna’s six years of leadership, buoyed by the AI data center boom that had been lifting all boats.
On Wednesday, IBM also lowered its full-year growth forecasts, meaning this horrible quarter would impact the rest of the year. The culprit? IBM’s cash-cow mainframe business was down 42%.
That’s a cascading problem, because as CFO Jim Kavanaugh explained on the quarterly call with investors, IBM earns $3 in software revenue for every $1 of mainframe hardware it sells.
However, the CEO and CFO spent the call insisting that this was a temporary blip and all would be well soon.
What happened, they said, was that “tens” of customers that were due to buy a new mainframe during the quarter opted not to do so. That may not sound like a lot of customers, but mainframes are systems that cost hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, and with maintenance contracts and software, generate many millions more.
The same AI boom that lifted IBM’s boat also sank it.
Instead of buying a new mainframe, these clients bought other hardware, Krishna explained. They were faced with astronomically high cost increases of 15% to 30% for data center gear and PCs.
“When they were faced with that issue, then they decided to move budget to those areas where they were having that extreme price,” Krishna said.
Enterprise hardware makers like Dell and HP have warned that rising costs on components like memory, caused by the AI build-out boom, have forced them to raise prices. Apple has said the same.
But Krishna promised that those customers will still buy their new mainframes eventually — along with their new software contracts. In fact, he said some of them have already done so this quarter. “We see no evidence of clients moving off the mainframe,” he said.
We’ll have to wait and see. But the tech industry has predicted the death of the mainframe for many decades now. Maybe even AI won’t kill it.