内容来源：https://lifehacker.com/tech/apple-guessing-game-round-3-predictions?utm_medium=RSS

内容总结：

本周三，苹果将迎来秋季重磅发布会，届时预计将首次亮相Apple Watch Series 12、iPhone 18 Pro，以及苹果首款折叠屏手机iPhone Ultra。在发布会前夕，Lifehacker发起了第三轮也是最后一轮“大竞猜”活动，邀请读者预测苹果本周可能发布的内容。虽然最终答案要等苹果在发布会上正式揭晓，但这里先来看看读者们的预测结果。

问题一：苹果会先介绍哪款产品？

市场普遍预测，苹果将在周三发布新款iPhone和Apple Watch，但也不排除其他新品的可能。苹果可能推出新款AirPods（或带摄像头版本），虽然也有发布新Mac的几率，但鉴于上周苹果已意外宣布了Mac相关消息，笔者对此持保留态度。本轮竞猜的首个问题就是“苹果会先介绍哪款产品”。（说明：该投票在苹果上周的Mac意外发布前已上线。）结果显示，49%的受访者认为苹果会从iPhone讲起，23%的人认为会先介绍Apple Watch。其他产品得票较少：16%认为会先发布新Mac（遗憾！），12%认为AirPods会最先被提及。

问题二：前任CEO蒂姆·库克会亮相吗？

周三的发布会将是自2011年iPhone 4S发布会以来，苹果首次由新任CEO主持的活动。蒂姆·库克已不再担任苹果CEO，新任CEO约翰·特努斯将主导本次发布会。不过，苹果发布会历来有多名员工参与，而库克目前仍是苹果执行董事长，因此他现身周三活动的可能性是存在的。Lifehacker读者对此意见分歧明显，但多数人认为他会露面：55%认为库克将现身，45%认为他不会。两种观点都有道理：一方面，库克“交棒”给特努斯顺理成章；另一方面，苹果可能更想确立“特努斯时代”的形象，库克出现反而可能模糊焦点。

问题三：折叠屏iPhone Ultra何时开启预购？

iPhone Ultra很可能是周三发布会的最大看点。这是苹果首款折叠屏iPhone，售价预计超过2000美元，且可能面临延期。因此，笔者询问读者：iPhone Ultra的预购何时真正开启？大多数读者持乐观态度，43%认为本月即可预购，33%认为要等到10月，15%觉得11月才会开放，另有9%认为预购时间会更晚。

问题四：苹果发布会时长多久？

苹果发布会通常不短。公司一般会有大量内容要讲，且尽管现在为预录形式，时长仍可能堪比一部电影。但苹果并未设定固定时长，这正好适合竞猜。51%的读者认为发布会将持续90到120分钟；41%认为会更短，约60到90分钟；只有8%认为发布会将超过两小时。笔者觉得超两小时可能性不大，但也不是没可能——毕竟苹果可能会对折叠屏iPhone进行详尽介绍。

问题五：新CEO约翰·特努斯会带回“One More Thing”吗？

“One More Thing”多年来一直是苹果发布会的经典环节，由时任CEO史蒂夫·乔布斯发扬光大。苹果通常在发布会尾声留一个大惊喜，并以“One More Thing”引出。特努斯若重现这一经典口号，无疑会引发欢呼，但新CEO也可能想走出自己的风格。大多数Lifehacker读者认为他会这样做：61%的人觉得“One More Thing”今年会回归，39%认为不会。就个人而言，笔者希望他能用这一环节，而且希望公布的内容真正带来惊喜，而不是早已被泄露的旧闻。

中文翻译：

周三，苹果终于将举办盛大的秋季发布会，我们很可能首次一睹Apple Watch Series 12、iPhone 18 Pro以及苹果首款折叠屏手机iPhone Ultra的风采。在发布会到来之前，Lifehacker进行了“大型竞猜游戏”的第三轮也是最后一轮投票，邀请读者预测苹果本周将发布什么内容。虽然在这些问题得到苹果在发布会上的正式确认前我们无从知晓答案，但下面就来盘点一下读者们的预测。

问题一：苹果会先介绍哪款产品？
传闻强烈预测苹果将在周三发布新款iPhone和新款Apple Watch，但总有可能还有其他设备亮相。苹果可能会发布新款AirPods——无论是否内置摄像头——而且虽然有机会发布新款Mac，但我对此持怀疑态度，因为上周苹果出乎所有人意料地发布了Mac相关消息。我在“大型竞猜游戏”第三轮的第一个问题就是关于苹果会先发布哪款产品。（需要说明的是，我们是在苹果意外发布Mac消息之前发起投票的。）大多数受访者（49%）认为苹果会从iPhone的消息说起，而23%的人认为苹果会先讲Apple Watch。较小比例的受访者认为苹果会先聚焦其他产品：16%的人认为会先发布新款Mac（抱歉了！），12%的人认为AirPods会首先被提及。

问题二：前苹果CEO蒂姆·库克会亮相吗？
周三的发布会将是自2011年iPhone 4S发布会以来，苹果首次在新CEO带领下举办的活动。蒂姆·库克已不再执掌苹果；因此，新任苹果CEO约翰·特努斯将主持本周的发布会。话虽如此，苹果发布会的各个流程都会有多位员工参与，而且由于库克仍是苹果的执行董事长，按理说他周三也有亮相的可能。
Lifehacker读者在这个问题上意见相当分歧，不过仍有明显的多数派。55%的受访者认为库克会亮相，而45%的人认为他不会。我能理解两边的逻辑：可以说，库克“交棒”给特努斯或许才合情合理。另一方面，苹果可能想确立“特努斯”新时代，而让库克出镜可能会让局面变得模糊不清。

问题三：折叠屏iPhone Ultra的预购何时开启？
iPhone Ultra很可能会在周三抢尽风头。它将是苹果首款折叠屏iPhone，售价可能超过2000美元，而且可能会延期发布。针对这一点，我问了Lifehacker读者iPhone Ultra的预购实际上何时会开启。大多数人持乐观态度，43%的人回应称iPhone Ultra本月就可以预购。另有33%的人认为苹果会在10月开放预购，15%的人认为Ultra要到11月才能购买。最后还有9%的人认为苹果会在另一个月份完全开启预售。

问题四：苹果发布会会持续多久？
苹果的发布会很少有短的。公司通常要发布大量消息，而且尽管这些发布会现在都是预先录制的，时长仍然可能堪比一部长篇电影。不过，苹果发布会没有固定的时长，这使它成为一个完美的竞猜问题。
大多数（51%）Lifehacker读者认为苹果发布会将持续90至120分钟；41%的人认为活动会稍短一些，时长在60至90分钟之间；还有一小部分受访者（8%）认为苹果发布会会很漫长，超过两个小时。我觉得这不太可能，但并非毫无机会——也许苹果会对那款折叠屏iPhone进行相当深入的介绍。

问题五：新CEO约翰·特努斯会带回“还有一件事”吗？
“还有一件事”多年来一直是苹果发布会的保留环节，由时任CEO史蒂夫·乔布斯使之闻名。公司会把重大发布留到活动最后，并以“还有一件事”作为引子。特努斯若能带回这句口号将是一种有趣的致敬，但话说回来，也许新CEO想走出自己的路。不过大多数Lifehacker读者认为他会这么做：61%的人认为“还有一件事”今年会回归，而39%的人认为不会。就我个人而言，我希望他会这么做，而且我希望届时发布的内容是真正出人意料的，而不是已经被泄露过的东西。

英文来源：

On Wednesday, Apple will finally host its big fall event, and we will likely get our first look at the Apple Watch Series 12, iPhone 18 Pro, and iPhone Ultra, Apple's first foldable iPhone. In the lead-up to this keynote, Lifehacker ran the third and final round of our Big Guessing Game, inviting readers to make predictions about what Apple will announce this week. While we won't know the answers to those questions until Apple officially confirms them during the event, here's a look at what readers think will happen.
Question 1: Which product will Apple discuss first?
The rumors strongly predict that Apple will announce new iPhones and a new Apple Watch on Wednesday, but there's always the possibility of more devices as well. Apple may release new AirPods—with or without embedded cameras—and while there's a chance they'll announce new Macs, I'm skeptical, given that Apple surprised us all with Mac news last week.
My first question of the third round of the Big Guessing Game was about which of these products Apple would announce first. (To be clear, we posted the quiz before Apple's surprise Mac announcements.) The majority of respondents (49%) believe Apple will start with its iPhone news, while 23% believe the company will kick things off with Apple Watch. Smaller percentages believe Apple will focus on other products first: 16% think they'll announce new Macs first (sorry!), while 12% think AirPods will get the first shoutout.
Question 2: Will former Apple CEO Tim Cook make an appearance?
Wednesday's keynote will be Apple's first with a new CEO since the iPhone 4S event back in 2011. Tim Cook is no longer head of Apple; as such, new Apple CEO John Ternus will lead this week's event. That said, Apple events feature numerous employees throughout, and since Tim Cook is still Apple's executive chair, it stands to reason Cook could make an appearance on Wednesday.
Lifehacker readers were pretty split on this question, though there was a clear majority. 55% of respondents think Cook will make an appearance, while 45% believe he will not. I could see the logic behind both: It might only make sense for Cook to "pass the baton" to Ternus, so to speak. On the other hand, Apple might want to establish the new "Ternus" era, and featuring Cook may muddy the waters.
Question 3: When will preorders for the foldable iPhone Ultra begin?
The iPhone Ultra will likely steal the show on Wednesday. It'll be Apple's first foldable iPhone, will likely cost over $2,000, and will possibly be delayed. To that point, I asked Lifehacker readers when the iPhone Ultra's preorder will actually open up. Most are optimistic, with 43% responding that iPhone Ultra will be available to preorder this month. Another 33% think Apple will open up preorders in October, while 15% think the Ultra will be unavailable until November. A final 9% think Apple will open preorders in another month entirely.
Question 4: How long will Apple's keynote last?
Apple events are rarely short. The company typically has a lot of announcements to get through, and even though these keynotes are now pre-recorded, they can run for as long as a feature-length movie. However, there's no set runtime for Apple events, which makes it a perfect guessing-game question.
The majority (51%) of Lifehacker readers think that Apple's keynote will run 90 to 120 minutes long; 41% think that the event will be a bit shorter, running from 60 to 90 minutes; and a slim respondent pool (8%) thinks that Apple's event will be long, running more than two hours. I don't think that's likely, but it's not impossible—maybe Apple will go quite in-depth on that foldable iPhone.
Question 5: Will new Apple CEO John Ternus bring back "One More Thing?"
"One more thing" was an Apple event staple for years, made famous by then-CEO Steve Jobs. The company would save a huge announcement for the end of the show and introduce it by saying "One more thing." It would be a fun nod for Ternus to bring back the slogan, but, again, perhaps the new CEO wants to carve his own path. Most Lifehacker readers think he'll do it, though: 61% think "One more thing" is coming back this year, compared to 39% who don't. Personally, I hope he does it, and I hope that whatever gets announced is actually surprising, and not something that's been leaked already.