黄仁勋解释英伟达明年为何将惊人增长70%
内容总结：
英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋近日在高盛科技大会上表示，公司凭借在人工智能领域的全面布局，将持续保持创纪录的增长势头，并对明年营收前景充满信心。他指出，英伟达已深度融入人工智能生态系统的各个环节，从供应链到数据中心项目，再到初创企业，均有广泛参与。黄仁勋重申，公司预计明年营收将同比增长70%，按当前财年约4000亿美元的收入预期计算，明年营收有望达到约6800亿美元。
针对外界关于英伟达面临来自超大规模云厂商、人工智能实验室及新兴竞争对手日益激烈竞争的担忧，黄仁勋回应称，英伟达的产品早已不再是早期面向消费者的图形处理器，而是集成了大量组件、功耗极高的复杂计算系统。他透露，仅一款结合36个Grace中央处理器和72个Blackwell图形处理器的计算机系统，目前销售额就实现了27%的环比增长。
对于外界质疑英伟达存在“循环交易”的问题，即投资于购买其产品的公司，黄仁勋予以否认，强调公司在投资前会确保对方拥有真实客户合同和收入来源。他表示，自己已审阅了价值1000亿美元的相关合同，强调“不承担风险，只追求确定性的回报”。
尽管黄仁勋对英伟达的未来充满信心，但他也承认，当前人工智能的增长很大一部分来自人工智能原生初创企业的大规模投入。随着行业逐渐成熟，企业在基础设施和使用效率方面将更加精细化。分析人士指出，科技行业的一大规律是巨头终将被颠覆，英伟达能否长期保持其在人工智能领域的统治地位，仍有待时间检验。
中文翻译：
创始人、CEO兼不知疲倦的英伟达推销员黄仁勋周四在高盛Communacopia+科技大会上告诉与会者，为什么他公司在AI领域的主导地位——以及营收——将持续其破纪录的增长势头，一直延续到明年年底。
他能看到未来。
围绕英伟达的盛宴是否会终结，外界一直忧心忡忡，因为它在GPU和AI芯片方面正面临来自四面八方的日益激烈的竞争：超大规模云厂商（亚马逊、微软和谷歌，各自都在自研芯片）和AI实验室（Anthropic和OpenAI，也在自研），以及新上市的竞争对手Cerebras和Etched等初创公司。
“大多数人以为英伟达造的是芯片。我的意思是，你得用飞机来运我们造的东西，”黄仁勋说，并补充道，公司仍在与早期形成的某种认知作斗争。英伟达发明了GPU，当时主要卖给消费者用于提升PC游戏体验。“现在一个GPU不是399美元，而是850万美元。那是一个GPU，全部通过NVLink连接，200万个零部件，对吧？25万千瓦。那是一个GPU，而我们出货成千上万个。”
他补充说，仅一款产品——一个将36个Grace CPU与72个Blackwell GPU结合在一起的计算机系统——目前的订单就实现了27%的环比销售增长。
不过，黄仁勋的乐观看法并不局限于当前销售。他借此机会重申了英伟达对明年的营收展望——这是公司上月公布又一份破纪录季度财报时给出的指引。当时他首次表示，明年营收可能增长70%。
“我认为我们明年可以同比增长70%。我们对此有信心，”黄仁勋周四再次表示。分析师预计，公司当前财年营收将达到约4000亿美元。因此，70%的增长意味着明年大约6800亿美元。
黄仁勋解释了他为何有信心：他的公司已深深嵌入AI的每一个领域，以至于他相信他能看到未来。
“英伟达运行所有模型。每一家实验室都能用我们，”这位CEO说，并提到这包括Anthropic、OpenAI和谷歌的模型，以及开放权重产品。“我们是AI生态系统的 foundational platform，是AI产业的基础平台。”
英伟达的触角从其供应商——比如存储芯片制造商——一直延伸到数据中心项目和初创公司。
“我们在跟踪世界上每一吉瓦的土地、电力、壳体和周边。真的，地球上的一切，”他说。（“壳体”指的是数据中心建筑在安装计算机之前的建筑外壳。）
“我的意思是，想想我所有的合作伙伴。有多少neoCloud在向我们汇报？有多少OEM在向我们汇报？有多少云厂商在向我们汇报？有多少AI原生公司在向我们汇报？我们在和所有人合作，所以我们多少知道一切都在哪里，”他说。
这番话不可避免地引来了关于英伟达所谓循环交易的提问，也就是它投资一些公司，而这些公司反过来又购买它的产品。这类安排曾众所周知地导致上一代互联网基础设施建设供应商如朗讯科技走向衰落。
黄仁勋给出了一个简单 albeit 略带调侃的回应。“嗯，这不是循环，因为我们投进去一点钱，回来很多钱。”他接着开玩笑说，“我看表格，我们投进去1美元，回来100美元。那算循环吗？如果是，那就让我们多来点。”
玩笑归玩笑，他坚称，在这些公司任何一家获得投资之前，英伟达都会确保它已有来自客户的真实创收合同。总的来说，他说他已经看到了价值1000亿美元的此类合同，“我不承担任何风险。……我需要确定无疑的事。”
时间会证明英伟达对AI的掌控能否真的长期持续。如果说科技行业有一条黄金法则，那就是所有大事物都会被颠覆。眼下，连黄仁勋也承认，AI的很大一部分增长来自AI原生初创公司，它们筹集巨额资金，并把其中大部分现金花在自己的AI使用上。随着AI行业走向成熟，预计企业在如何使用基础设施和token方面会变得更加高效。
但就目前而言，英伟达无处不在，并且预计未来还有又一个丰收年。
英文来源：
Founder, CEO, and tireless Nvidia hype man Jensen Huang told attendees at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference on Thursday why his company’s AI domination — and revenues — will continue its record-breaking growth streak through the end of next year.
He can see the future.
There’s been endless hand-wringing over whether Nvidia’s party will end as it faces increasing competition for GPUs and AI chips from all directions: the hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, each building their own) and the AI labs (Anthropic and OpenAI, which are building their own), as well as from newly public competitor Cerebras and startups such as Etched.
“Most people think Nvidia builds a chip. I mean, you need airplanes to ship what we build,” Huang said, adding that the company continues to battle a perception from its early days. Nvidia invented the GPU, which back then were largely sold to consumers to improve PC gaming. “One GPU now is not $399. It’s $8.5 million dollars. That’s one GPU, all connected with NVLink, 2 million parts, right? 250,000 kilowatts. That’s a GPU, and we ship thousands of them.”
He added that orders for just one product, a computer system that combines 36 Grace CPUs with 72 Blackwell GPUs, is currently experiencing 27% month-to-month sales growth.
Huang didn’t limit his bullish view to current sales though. He took the opportunity to reiterate Nvidia’s revenue outlook for next year — guidance the company provided last month when it reported yet another record-breaking revenue quarter. That’s when he first said revenue could grow by 70% next year.
“I think we could grow 70% year over year. We’re confident about that,” Huang said again on Thursday. Analysts expect the company to end its current fiscal year at about $400 billion in revenue. So 70% growth would mean around $680 billion next year.
Huang explained why he’s confident: His company is so embedded in every area of AI that he believes he can see the future.
“Nvidia runs every model. Every single lab can use us,” the CEO said, mentioning that this includes models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, as well as open-weight offerings. “We are a foundational platform of the AI ecosystem, foundational platform of the AI industry.”
Nvidia’s fingers extend all the way from its suppliers, such as memory chip makers, to data center projects and startups.
“We’re tracking every single gigawatt of land, power, shell around the world. Literally everything on the planet,” he said. (“Shell” refers to the shell of a data center building before it is outfitted with computers).
“I mean, just think about all my partners. How many neoclouds are reporting back to us? How many OEMs are reporting back to us? How many clouds are reporting back to us? How many AI-native companies are reporting back to us? We’re working with everybody, and so we kind of know where everything is,” he said.
That comment led to inevitable questions about Nvidia’s so-called circular deals, in which it invests in companies that turn around and buy its wares. Such schemes famously contributed to the downfall of a previous generation of internet build-out suppliers like Lucent Technologies.
Huang had a simple, albeit cheeky, response. “Well, it’s not circular because we put a little bit of money in, and a lot of money comes back.” He went on to joke, “I look at the spreadsheet, we put in $1 and $100 comes back in. Is that circular? If that is, let’s do more of that.”
Quips aside, he insisted that before any of these companies gets an investment, Nvidia makes sure it has real contracts generating revenue from customers. All told, he said he’s seen $100 billion worth of such contracts, “I’m not taking any risks. … I need a sure thing.”
Time will tell whether Nvidia’s stronghold on AI can really persist long term. If there’s one golden rule of the tech industry, it’s that all big things get disrupted. Right now, even Huang admits that much of AI’s growth is coming from AI-native startups that are raising vast sums and spending most of that cash on their own AI use. As the AI industry matures, expect companies to become more efficient in how they use infrastructure and tokens.
But for now, Nvidia has its finger in every pie and sees another year of plenty in its future.