内容来源：https://aibusiness.com/automation/humanoid-bottlenecks-emerge

内容总结：

一份最新行业报告指出，中国在人形机器人核心硬件供应链中占据主导地位，随着产量上升和地缘政治紧张加剧，西方开发商面临越来越大的供应链瓶颈压力。报告称，中国在电机和减速器领域的主导优势“已超越单个供应商层面”，而美国联邦通信委员会禁止进口外国制造人形机器人的举措，可能使这一主导地位成为西方生产商的关键供应链风险。分析人士指出，人形机器人硬件的最大脆弱点集中在电机、精密减速器、执行器等关键机械部件，这些部件对机器人运动和控制至关重要，且替换供应商难度极大，往往需要重新设计、测试和验证。德国舍弗勒和日本哈默纳科等非中国替代供应商目前产量仍然较小。报告认为，地缘政治紧张可能迫使西方制造商将供应链韧性置于成本之上，通过多元化供应、本地化生产或转向美国、欧洲、日本等市场采购来降低风险，但这将推高短期制造成本。美国自动化促进协会主席伯恩斯坦表示，美中之间的差距与其说在于制造能力，不如说在于让制造变得有价值的市场。他指出，中国供应链并非偶然出现，而是源于国家战略、政策激励和需求规模化。美国则缺乏相应的机器人战略。分析人士认为，中国供应链的高度整合生态难以一夜复制，西方需要大量投资、协调和时间才能建立有竞争力的本土供应链。不过也有分析师认为，中国供应商的“主导”部分源于中国机器人厂商的采购偏好，而非缺乏替代方案，随着欧洲和日本供应商扩大产能，西方开发商有望逐步减少对中国零部件的依赖，这一趋势只是时间问题。

中文翻译：

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产量不断攀升正加大供应商的压力，而美中紧张关系可能使西方制造商更难找到中国供应商的替代方案。
中国在人形机器人关键硬件领域的主导地位正加剧西方开发商面临的供应链瓶颈，因为产量上升和持续的地缘政治紧张局势加大了供应商的压力。
Smart Analytics Global（SAG）的一份新报告发现，中国在人形机器人电机和谐波减速器生态系统中占据主导地位，其优势“超越了单个供应商层面”。
该报告强调，持续的美中紧张关系——在美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）禁止进口外国制造的人形机器人后达到某种高潮——可能成为催化剂，使这一主导地位演变为西方生产商面临的关键供应链问题。
“最大的脆弱性将出现在硬件供应链中，尤其是电机、精密减速器、执行器和其他关键机械部件，”SAG创始人兼分析师Linda Sui表示。“这些部件对人形机器人的运动和操作至关重要。”
人形机器人部件的专业性意味着替换现有供应商将面临挑战，因为替代方案可能需要大量重新设计、测试和验证。德国的舍弗勒和日本的哈默纳科提供了重要的非中国替代方案，但它们目前的人形机器人产量仍然相对较小。
Sui补充说，风险还延伸至上游材料和制造工艺，包括永磁体、精密齿轮和轴承。
最终，这种紧张局势可能推动人形机器人制造商将供应链韧性置于成本之上。
“我们认为西方人形机器人制造商可能不得不做出这一选择，除非美中贸易和技术政策出现向更大开放性转变的实质性变化，”Sui说。“在当前地缘政治环境下，供应链安全和韧性正成为越来越重要的战略考量。”
作为应对，西方制造商可能需要多元化其供应商、实现本地化生产，或从美国、欧洲、日本和其他市场采购更多部件，即使这些替代方案成本更高。
这可能会在短期内推高制造成本，尤其是因为替代供应链缺乏中国已建立的规模、效率和整合能力。Sui表示，这些额外成本必须作为确保长期供应稳定的必要代价来接受。
然而对美国而言，禁止所有外国进口使该国陷入一个艰难境地——不得不完全转向国内寻求部件供应，尽管其并不具备相应的框架。
自动化促进协会（A3）主席Jeff Burnstein表示，美国与中国之间的差距与其说在于制造能力，不如说在于使制造值得进行的市场。
他认为，中国的供应链并非偶然出现。北京设定了在机器人领域领先的国家目标，然后激励企业在那里设厂，创造了使国内部件制造商得以扩大规模的需求。
“他们有一个成为机器人领域领导者的国家战略，”他说。“他们不断更新这一战略，制定新的五年规划。他们看到了未来，并且正在建设他们所看到的未来。”
他说，美国没有对等的战略。“没有机器人战略。根本不存在，”Burnstein说，并指出A3一直在倡导制定一项战略。
对外国部件的限制假定国内替代品将填补缺口，但鉴于需求和监管框架的双重缺失，这些供应商尚未形成规模。
对此，Burnstein表示，应该增加采用机器人的激励措施，支持更多使用这项技术的中小型企业，以及更多政府资助的培训项目。
他说，分阶段实施进口禁令本可以帮助西方更有效地建立可靠的部件来源。“国内供应链是可能的，但不可能通过一夜之间切断来自中国的供应链来实现。”
虽然西方开发商可以寻求欧洲和日本的成熟供应商作为替代，但将这些能力整合为一个具有竞争力、可扩展的人形机器人供应链需要大量投资、协调和时间。
中国拥有高度整合的生态系统，涵盖电机、减速器、齿轮、轴承和执行器。要复制这一生态系统以维持整合的供应链以及各种部件所需的定制化，是一项艰巨的挑战。
“你不可能一夜之间简单复制多年的制造经验、供应商关系和生产能力，”Sui说。
许多人形机器人制造商需要定制化系统来满足其特定需求，这需要时间，尤其是在人形机器人产量扩大之际。
并非所有分析师都认为这一障碍是结构性的。对于Informa TechTarget旗下Omdia的分析师Lian Ji Su而言，中国的主导地位部分反映的是中国机器人制造商的采购习惯，而非缺乏替代方案。
“我认为中国供应商‘主导地位’背后的原因主要是中国机器人厂商偏好使用中国供应商，”他说。
Su表示，西方开发商已经在舍弗勒、费斯托和哈默纳科等公司找到了选择，这些公司的部件通常被认为优于中国同类产品。更大的障碍是规模而非技术，随着这些供应商提高产量，它们可能变得更具成本竞争力，从而使人形机器人开发商能够减少对中国部件的依赖。
“这种情况完全现实——不是是否会发生的问题，而是何时发生的问题，”他说。

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Rising production volumes are increasing pressure on suppliers, while U.S.-China tensions could make it harder for Western manufacturers to secure alternatives to Chinese suppliers.
China’s dominance in critical humanoid hardware is exacerbating a supply chain bottleneck for Western developers, as rising production volumes and ongoing geopolitical tensions increase pressure on suppliers.
A new report from Smart Analytics Global (SAG) found China dominates the ecosystem of motors and reducers for humanoid robots, with the advantage “going beyond individual suppliers.”
The report highlights persistent U.S.-China tensions, brought to something of a head with the FCC’s banning of foreign-made humanoid robot imports, as a potential catalyst to make this dominance a critical supply chain problem for Western producers.
“The biggest vulnerabilities would emerge in the hardware supply chain, particularly motors, precision reducers, actuators and other critical mechanical components,” said Linda Sui, founder and analyst at SAG. “These components are essential to humanoid robot movement and manipulation.”
The specialist nature of humanoid components means replacing an existing supplier would be challenging, as alternatives may require significant redesign, testing and validation. Germany’s Schaeffler and Japan’s Harmonic Drive Systems provide important non-China alternatives, but their current humanoid volumes remain relatively small.
Sui added that the risks extend to upstream materials and manufacturing processes, including permanent magnets, precision gears and bearings.
Ultimately, the tensions could push humanoid manufacturers to prioritize supply-chain resilience over cost.
“We believe Western humanoid manufacturers may have to make this choice, unless there is a meaningful shift in U.S.-China trade and technology policies toward greater openness,” Sui said. “Under the current geopolitical environment, supply-chain security and resilience are becoming increasingly important strategic considerations.”
In response, Western manufacturers may need to diversify their suppliers, localize production, or source more components from other markets such as the U.S., Europe, Japan and other areas, even if these alternatives are more expensive.
This would likely boost manufacturing costs in the near term, particularly as alternative supply chains lack the scale, efficiency and integration already established in China. These additional costs will, Sui says, have to be accepted as necessary evils to ensure long-term supply stability.
For the U.S., however, the ban on all foreign imports leaves the country in a difficult position of having to turn entirely inward for its component supply, despite not having the framework to do so.
Jeff Burnstein, president of the Association for Advancing Automation (A3), said the gap between the U.S. and China is less about manufacturing capability than about the market that makes manufacturing worthwhile.
China’s supply chain didn’t appear by accident, he argues. Beijing set a national goal of leading in robotics, then incentivized companies to set up shop there, creating the demand that enabled domestic component makers to scale.
“They had a national strategy to become a leader in robotics,” he said. “They keep updating that strategy, new five-year plans. They saw the future, and they’re building the future that they saw.”
The U.S., he said, has no equivalent. “There is no robotics strategy. It doesn’t exist,” Burnstein said, noting that A3 has been advocating for one.
Restrictions on foreign components assume domestic alternatives will fill the gap, but those suppliers don’t yet exist at scale, given a lack of both demand and a regulatory framework.
In response, Burnstein said there should be increased incentives to adopt robots, support for more small and medium-sized companies using this technology, and more government-funded training programs.
A phased-in approach to the import ban would have helped the West establish reliable sources of components more effectively, he said. “A domestic supply chain is possible, but it can’t happen by shutting off the supply chain from China overnight.”
While Western developers can look to established suppliers in Europe and Japan as alternatives, bringing these capabilities together into a competitive, scalable humanoid supply chain will require significant investment, coordination and time.
China has a highly integrated ecosystem spanning motors, reducers, gears, bearings and actuators. Replicating that to maintain an integrated supply chain and the customization required for the various components is challenging.
“You cannot simply replicate years of manufacturing experience, supplier relationships and production capacity overnight,” Sui said.
Many humanoid robot manufacturers require customized systems to meet their specific requirements, which takes time, particularly as humanoid production scales.
Not every analyst sees the obstacle as structural. For Lian Ji Su, an analyst at Omdia, a division of Informa TechTarget, China’s dominance partly reflects the purchasing habits of Chinese robot makers rather than an absence of alternatives.
“I would argue that the reasons behind the ‘dominance’ of Chinese suppliers are mainly due to the preference of Chinese robotics vendors to utilize Chinese suppliers,” he said.
Western developers have established options in Schaeffler, Festo and Harmonic Drive, whose components are generally considered superior to Chinese equivalents, Su said. The bigger hurdle is scale rather than technology, and as those suppliers increase output, they could become more cost-competitive, letting humanoid developers reduce their reliance on Chinese parts.
“The situation is fully realistic -- it is not a matter of if, but of when,” he said.