内容来源：https://www.geekwire.com/2026/andy-jassys-prediction-amazon-could-have-two-1-trillion-businesses-within-a-decade/

内容总结：

亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西在第三季度财报发布及分析师电话会议上表示，亚马逊云服务（AWS）与公司零售业务有望在未来五至十年内分别实现年收入突破1万亿美元的目标，届时亚马逊将成为首家拥有两项万亿美元级业务的公司。摩根士丹利分析师指出，贾西作出如此长远的预测“相当罕见”。贾西回应称，AWS第三季度增长39%，年化收入运行率已达1840亿美元，预计2027年和2028年增速均将超过40%，目前AWS已签约但尚未确认的收入储备达5780亿美元，大客户一次性预留高达1吉瓦的算力容量，为2027年至2029年提供了“非常好的可见度”。他还表示，企业使用人工智能仍处于早期阶段，AI模型运行成本持续下降，新应用场景不断涌现。贾西称，以当前增速而言，AWS成为万亿美元业务“并非遥不可及”。相比之下，七个月前他曾对员工表示AWS有望在约十年内达到至少6000亿美元年收入。零售业务方面，亚马逊过去12个月线上及实体店销售额合计3090亿美元，若计入第三方卖家服务和广告收入则约为5750亿美元。贾西指出，亚马逊零售业务过去12个月商品销售总额增加逾900亿美元，每季度增量约为美国第二大竞争对手的两倍，今年迄今销量增长近15%，而目前近80%的零售销售仍在线下完成，预计将逐步向线上转移。上述乐观预测发布之际，亚马逊因利润不及华尔街预期，盘后股价下跌约6%。贾西预计公司今年资本支出约2200亿美元，主要用于AWS，2027年还将“显著增加”。过去12个月自由现金流为负424亿美元，而去年同期为正148亿美元；公司今年已通过长期债务融资1150亿美元，第三季度利息支出增至17亿美元，为去年同期的三倍多，对利润形成挤压。贾西表示，目前仍处于这一转折点的极早期阶段，公司战略正在奏效，并预计在可预见的未来将持续有效。

中文翻译：

还没有任何一家公司的年营收达到过1万亿美元。安迪·贾西说，亚马逊有望拥有两项这样的业务。

这位亚马逊CEO周四在公司第三季度财报发布及分析师电话会议上表示，亚马逊云服务（AWS）和公司的零售业务都可能在未来五到十年内达到这一里程碑。

摩根士丹利分析师布莱恩·诺瓦克在电话会议上指出，贾西做出如此长远的预测“相当罕见”，并询问他如何实现这一目标。

贾西的回答从AWS开始。AWS第三季度增长39%，目前年化营收运行率已达1840亿美元。他预计2027年和2028年的增长率都将超过40%，并指出AWS已签约但尚未确认的收入积压达5780亿美元。

他说，最大客户以巨大的区块预留容量，有时一次高达1吉瓦，这使亚马逊对2027年、2028年以及2029年部分时间拥有“非常好的可见度”。

除此之外，他表示，企业在使用AI方面仍处于早期阶段，运行AI模型的成本持续下降，新用途不断涌现，例如AI模型发现并修复安全漏洞。

“你无法确定地预测五到十年后的情况，尤其是在这样的增长率下，”贾西在谈到AWS时说。“但我们不难想象，这有可能成为一项超过万亿美元的业务。”

贾西的预测与七个月前相比是一个巨大的跃升。据路透社报道，今年3月，贾西曾告诉员工，AWS有机会在约十年内达到至少6000亿美元的年营收，是他此前预期的两倍。

亚马逊的零售业务比AWS规模更大。过去12个月，亚马逊线上和实体门店的销售额合计为3090亿美元；如果贾西在万亿美元预测中计入了第三方卖家服务和广告收入，则约为5750亿美元。我们已请亚马逊予以澄清。

作为对比，全球最大零售商沃尔玛最近一个财年的营收为7130亿美元。

无论他使用的是哪组数字，贾西表示，“有些人有点在打瞌睡”，没有意识到零售业务已经取得了多大的进展。

贾西认为，亚马逊的零售业务正在缩小与竞争对手的差距。他说，过去12个月亚马逊总销售额增加了超过900亿美元，每季度新增销售额约为美国第二大竞争对手的两倍。

贾西说，今年迄今为止销量增长了近15%。他指出，近80%的零售销售仍发生在实体门店，他预计这部分将随着时间推移转向线上。

这一大胆预测出现在公司艰难的一天。亚马逊利润低于华尔街预期，盘后股价下跌约6%。

实现这一目标并不便宜。亚马逊预计今年将在资本项目上支出约2200亿美元，主要用于AWS，贾西表示2027年的支出将“显著增加”。他说亚马逊拥有“清晰的视线看到有吸引力的财务回报”，并且资本支出的回收速度比以往更快。

这一影响已经体现在亚马逊的财务数据中。过去12个月，其自由现金流（资本支出后剩余的现金）为负424亿美元，而一年前为正148亿美元。

由于支出超过了业务带来的现金流入，亚马逊今年通过长期债务融资了1150亿美元。第三季度利息支出增至三倍多，达到17亿美元，侵蚀了利润。

“我们正处于这一拐点的非常早期阶段，”贾西说。“我们的战略正在奏效，我预计在可预见的未来也将继续奏效。”

英文来源：

No company has ever had a business with $1 trillion in annual revenue. Andy Jassy says Amazon is on a path to have two.
Amazon Web Services and the company’s stores business could both reach that milestone in the next five to 10 years, the Amazon CEO said Thursday in the company’s third-quarter earnings release and on its call with analysts.
It’s “pretty rare” for Jassy to make a projection that far out, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak observed on the call, asking how he gets there.
Jassy’s answer started with AWS, which is at a $184 billion annual revenue run rate after growing 39% in the third quarter. He expects growth of more than 40% in both 2027 and 2028, and pointed to a $578 billion backlog of contracted AWS revenue.
The largest customers reserve capacity in huge blocks, sometimes as much as a gigawatt at a time, giving Amazon “very good visibility” into 2027, 2028 and part of 2029, he said.
Beyond that, he said, businesses are still early in using AI, the cost of running AI models keeps falling, and new uses keep emerging, such as AI models finding and fixing security flaws.
“You can’t predict with any certainty five to 10 years from now, especially at these types of growth rates,” Jassy said of AWS. “But it’s not a stretch for us to imagine that this could be over a trillion dollar business.”
Jassy’s forecast is a big jump from seven months ago. In March, Jassy told employees that AWS had a chance to reach at least $600 billion in annual revenue within about a decade, double his earlier expectation, according to Reuters.
Amazon’s stores business is bigger than AWS. Sales from Amazon’s online and physical stores totaled $309 billion over the past 12 months, or about $575 billion if Jassy is including third-party seller services and advertising in his trillion-dollar projection. We’ve asked Amazon to clarify.
For comparison, Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, had $713 billion in revenue in its most recent fiscal year.
Whichever numbers he’s using, Jassy said “some folks are sleeping a bit” on how much progress the stores business has made.
Jassy argued that Amazon’s stores business is gaining ground on competitors. Amazon added more than $90 billion in gross sales over the past 12 months, he said, and is adding about twice as much per quarter as its next-largest U.S. competitor.
Units sold are up nearly 15% so far this year, Jassy said. He noted that nearly 80% of retail sales still happen in physical stores, which he expects to shift online over time.
The bold prediction came on a rough day for the company. Amazon shares fell about 6% in after-hours trading after its profit fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
It’s not going to be cheap to get there. Amazon expects to spend about $220 billion on capital projects this year, mostly for AWS, and Jassy said the company will spend “meaningfully more” in 2027. He said Amazon has “a clear line of sight to attractive financial returns” and is earning back its capital spending faster than before.
The impact is showing up in Amazon’s finances. Its free cash flow, the cash left over after capital spending, was negative $42.4 billion over the past 12 months, compared with positive $14.8 billion a year earlier.
With its spending running ahead of the cash its businesses bring in, Amazon has raised $115 billion through long-term debt this year. Its interest expense more than tripled in the third quarter to $1.7 billion, cutting into its profit.
“We’re in the very early days of this inflection,” Jassy said. “Our strategy is working, and I expect it will for the foreseeable future.”