内容来源：https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/27/vcs-will-make-billions-on-anthropics-ipo-but-amazon-is-set-to-make-much-much-more/

内容总结：

据媒体报道，人工智能公司Anthropic即将启动IPO，其早期风险投资机构虽有望获得巨额回报，但持股比例均未达到5%的披露门槛，这在科技公司IPO中极为罕见。究其原因，Anthropic估值高达9650亿美元，1%的股份价值即接近100亿美元，Menlo Ventures约140亿美元的持仓仅占公司约1.5%。与之形成对比的是，战略合作伙伴成为更大受益者，其中亚马逊可能是本次IPO的最大财务赢家。亚马逊自2023年起累计向Anthropic投资约180亿美元，其中很大一部分以可转换债券形式进行。根据S-1文件，截至6月30日，亚马逊持有本金62亿美元的未偿可转换债券，构成Anthropic全部债务负担，而亚马逊自身文件对该部分债券估值已达979亿美元。随着Anthropic估值攀升，Anthropic需在账面上记录这些债券公允价值的上行，2026年上半年相关调整在利润表中合计达724亿美元，属非现金支出。这些债券最多可转换为18.4亿股，但设有上限，使亚马逊持股不超过Anthropic“部分稀释”股数的12%，亚马逊可放弃该上限。此外，亚马逊今年第二季度还以100亿美元购入无投票权优先股。除股权收益外，Anthropic承诺未来十年在AWS上支出至少1100亿美元，亚马逊将持续获得可观收入。谷歌同样是重要受益者，截至去年年初持有Anthropic约14%股份，此后继续追加投资，包括今年4月的100亿美元，并已锁定至少1140亿美元的云服务承诺。S-1文件同时提示，部分云服务商也在开发竞争性AI模型，其利益未必总与Anthropic一致。

中文翻译：

许多投资者有望在Anthropic上市时大赚一笔。包括Menlo Ventures、红杉资本、Sound Ventures和Spark Capital在内的多家机构所持股份预计将带来数十亿美元的回报。

然而，根据Anthropic的S-1文件，这些风投公司中没有一家持股达到5%——即被纳入主要股东名单的门槛。这极不寻常。在典型的科技公司IPO中，领投的风投机构通常持有其所投资的初创公司两位数的百分比股份。原因在于Anthropic的规模。按其9650亿美元的非上市估值计算，1%的股份价值近100亿美元，因此，举例来说，据彭博社近期报道的数据，Menlo约140亿美元的持仓仅占该公司约1.5%。

尽管风投机构可能缺乏可观的百分比持股，但Anthropic向战略合作伙伴——同时也是其商业伙伴的公司——出售了大量股份。事实上，亚马逊很可能是此次IPO最大的单一财务受益者。

亚马逊于2023年首次投资Anthropic，承诺向这家AI公司投资最多40亿美元。此后，亚马逊又向Anthropic投入了数十亿美元。亚马逊并未预先取得股票，而是将大部分投资设计为可转换债券——一种在IPO或出售时转换为股份的债务。

根据S-1文件，截至6月30日，亚马逊持有的可转换债券本金余额为62亿美元。这就是Anthropic的全部债务负担。但随着Anthropic的估值在 successive 融资轮次中飙升，这些债券将转换成的股份变得值钱得多。亚马逊自身的文件显示，截至6月30日，其持有的债券价值为979亿美元。

随着亚马逊可转换债券价值飙升，Anthropic不得不在账面上记录其所欠价值的增长。该公司在利润表上将相关调整列在“可转换债券、衍生负债和SAFE的公允价值变动”项下，该项目2026年上半年合计724亿美元。该费用为非现金性质，意味着公司并未实际支出资金。

根据S-1文件，亚马逊的债券最多可转换为18.4亿股。但有一项上限将亚马逊的持股限制在Anthropic“部分稀释”后股份总数的12%——该数字计入了一些尚未发行的股份，如股票期权。亚马逊可以放弃该上限。无法转换的债券将继续存续，并在后续季度转换，受同一限制约束。

但债券只是亚马逊持股的一部分。根据亚马逊截至6月30日的季度报告，该公司第二季度还进一步投资了100亿美元于无投票权优先股（一种股权）。亚马逊是通过在Anthropic最近两轮融资中各投资50亿美元来完成这一操作的。加上2023年至2025年间在债券上投资的80亿美元，亚马逊的总投资额达到约180亿美元。

除了股票收益之外，亚马逊还将继续从Anthropic获得可观的收入——后者已承诺在未来10年内至少在AWS上花费1100亿美元。

谷歌同样将从Anthropic上市以及与其签订的云计算协议中获得巨额收益。据《纽约时报》报道的法庭文件，截至去年年初，这家搜索巨头持有Anthropic约14%的股份，此后又追加了投资，包括4月份的100亿美元。（谷歌很可能在随后的大规模融资轮次中被稀释，PitchBook分析师Harrison Rolfes告诉TechCrunch，他估计谷歌目前的持股比例更接近5.6%。）谷歌还锁定了Anthropic到2033年至少1140亿美元的云服务承诺。

尽管即将获得巨额回报的风投机构没有什么理由抱怨，但S-1文件清楚地表明，Anthropic IPO的最大赢家很可能正是亚马逊这样的科技巨头——它们早期支持了一个潜在的竞争对手，如今又向其出售其运行所需的大部分算力。

S-1文件本身也警告称，其中一些云服务提供商同时也在构建竞争性的AI模型，而且它们与Anthropic的诉求未必总是一致。

英文来源：

Many investors stand to win big when Anthropic goes public. Stakes held by firms including Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital are expected to return billions.
Yet according to Anthropic’s S-1, none of those VC firms owns 5%, the threshold for being included in the principal stockholders’ table. That’s highly unusual. In a typical tech IPO, lead venture investors hold double-digit-percentage stakes in the startups they backed. The reason is Anthropic’s size. At its $965 billion private valuation, a 1% stake is worth nearly $10 billion, so, for example, Menlo’s roughly $14 billion position is only about 1.5% of the company, according to recently reported Bloomberg figures.
While the venture firms may lack sizable percentage stakes, Anthropic sold large stakes to strategic partners, companies that are also its business partners. Indeed, Amazon is likely the single largest financial beneficiary of the IPO.
Amazon first backed Anthropic in 2023 with a commitment to invest up to $4 billion in the AI company. Since then, Amazon has poured billions more into Anthropic. Instead of taking stock upfront, Amazon structured much of its investment as convertible notes, a type of debt that converts into shares upon an IPO or sale.
According to the S-1, Amazon holds convertible notes with $6.2 billion in principal outstanding as of June 30. That is Anthropic’s entire debt load. But as Anthropic’s valuation soared across successive funding rounds, the shares those notes will convert into became far more valuable. Amazon’s own filings valued its note holdings at $97.9 billion as of June 30.
As the value of Amazon’s convertible notes surged, Anthropic had to record the growing value of what it owes on its books. It reported the adjustments on its income statement under “change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs,” a line that totaled $72.4 billion for the first half of 2026. The charge is non-cash, meaning no money left the company.
Amazon’s notes could convert into as many as 1.84 billion shares, according to the S-1. But a cap limits Amazon to 12% of Anthropic’s “partially diluted” share count, a figure that counts some shares not yet issued, such as stock options. Amazon can waive the cap. Notes that can’t convert will stay outstanding and convert in later quarters, subject to the same limit.
But the notes are only part of Amazon’s holdings. It further invested $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock (a type of equity), in the second quarter, according to Amazon’s quarterly report for the period ended June 30. Amazon did this by investing $5 billion in each of Anthropic’s last two funding rounds. Combined with the $8 billion it invested in the notes from 2023 through 2025, that brings Amazon’s total investment to about $18 billion.
Beyond its stock gains, Amazon will also continue to earn significant revenue from Anthropic, which has committed to spend at least $110 billion on AWS over the next 10 years.
Google, too, is set for a major windfall from both the listing and its cloud computing deals with Anthropic. The search giant held about 14% of Anthropic as of early last year, according to court filings that were reported by The New York Times, and has invested more since, including $10 billion in April. (Google was likely diluted in subsequent and massive funding rounds, with PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes telling TechCrunch he estimates its current stake at closer to 5.6%.) It has also secured at least $114 billion in cloud commitments from the Anthropic through 2033.
While VCs set for massive paydays have little reason to complain, the S-1 makes it clear that the biggest winners of Anthropic’s IPO may well be tech giants like Amazon, which backed a would-be rival early on and now sell it much of the computing power it runs on.
The S-1 itself warns that some of those cloud providers also build rival AI models and that they may not always want the same things that Anthropic does.